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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone M3 Money Supply YoY fell to 2.7% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Eurozone M3 Money Supply YoY fell to 2.7% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 0.5% from March's 3.2% reading. The reading missed the 3.3% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.19%. Over the past 3 months, M3 Money Supply YoY averaged 3.1%, vs 3.03% in the prior 3-month window. M3 Money Supply YoY is now the lowest in 20 months.
Latest Release
2.7
Actual
3.3
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8,406.72 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.22
Actual: 2.7
Error: +0.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M3 Money Supply YoY (European Union) was reported at 2.7% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.3% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8186012.99%, ranging from 2.7% to 17429203.92% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5809736.54%, down from the prior three at 11576865.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 8586482.82%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 8356479.92%). In June readings over the past 3 years, M3 Money Supply YoY has averaged 5552890.78%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8406.72%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ECB Lagarde Speech (Jun 17) and ECB President Lagarde Speech (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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M3 Money Supply YoY - EU
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About M3 Money Supply YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
M3 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes all forms of money, such as cash, deposits, and other liquid assets. This indicator is used by economists and policymakers to assess the overall health and stability of a country's monetary system and to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A positive YoY change in M3 Money Supply indicates an increase in liquidity and potential for economic growth, while a negative change may signal potential inflationary pressures.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.7 Percent, consensus 3.3 Percent. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 3.2 Percent. Before that (Feb 2026): 3 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR, r=-0.42) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.