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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone M3 Money Supply YoY held to 3.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Eurozone M3 Money Supply YoY held to 3.5% in September 2026, released October 2026. The reading matched the 3.4% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.08%. Over the past 3 months, M3 Money Supply YoY averaged 3.45%, vs 3.07% in the prior 3-month window. M3 Money Supply YoY is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
3.4
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2,251.48 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 146.54
Actual: 3.5
Error: +143.04
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
M3 Money Supply YoY (European Union) was reported at 3.5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.4% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8733549.3%, ranging from 2.7% to 17710486.34% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5903497.78%, up from the prior three at 5876714.72%. Volatility over the past year (σ 8734289.82%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 8438337.23%). In October readings over the past 3 years, M3 Money Supply YoY has averaged 6718703.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2251.48%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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M3 Money Supply YoY - EU
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About M3 Money Supply YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
M3 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual change in the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes all forms of money, such as cash, deposits, and other liquid assets. This indicator is used by economists and policymakers to assess the overall health and stability of a country's monetary system and to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A positive YoY change in M3 Money Supply indicates an increase in liquidity and potential for economic growth, while a negative change may signal potential inflationary pressures.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3.5 Percent, consensus 3.4 Percent. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3.5 Percent. Before that (Jul 2026): 3.4 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -3.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33.9 | 34.7 | 38 | 35.95 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 24.8 | 20.8 | 22 | 23.40 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.20 | Medium |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -17.9 | -16.8 | -17.9 | -17.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |