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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Bavaria CPI MoM climbed to 0.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Germany Bavaria CPI MoM climbed to 0.6% in September 2026, up 0.4% from August's 0.2% reading.
Latest Release
0.600000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.200000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Bavaria CPI MoM (Germany) was reported at 0.6% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.23%, ranging from -0.2% to 1.2% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, up from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.41%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.26%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Bavaria CPI MoM has averaged 0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices YoY (Oct 14) and Wholesale Prices MoM (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Bavaria CPI MoM - DE
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About Bavaria CPI MoM — Germany
DEFINITION
Bavaria CPI MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services in the German state of Bavaria. It is an important tool for monitoring inflation and economic trends in the region, providing valuable insights for businesses and policymakers. This indicator is widely used by investors and analysts to make informed decisions and assess the overall health of the Bavarian economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.6 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | DE | Imports MoM | 0.9 | -5.5 | 2.8 | 1.85 | Low |
| 06:00 | DE | Exports MoM | -0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.00 | Medium |
| 06:00 | DE | Balance of Trade | 19.5 | 21.6 | 19 | 19.25 | High |
| 09:40 | DE | New Car Sales YoY | 9 | 2.6 | 4 | 6.50 | Low |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | DE | Current Account | 21.2 | 17.2 | 14.85 | Low | |