Loading page content
Data from European Central Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Germany HICP All Items YoY held to 2 Percent in November 2025
European Central BankMonthlyReleased December 2025
Germany Germany HICP All Items YoY held to 2 Percent in November 2025, released December 2025.
Latest Release
2.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
2.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Germany HICP All Items YoY (Germany) was reported at 2.00 Percent in November 2025. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.20 Percent, ranging from 1.80 Percent to 2.60 Percent across 6 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.30 Percent, up from the prior three at 2.10 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.26 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.31 Percent). In December readings over the past 3 years, Germany HICP All Items YoY has averaged 2.87 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Bundesbank Balz Speech (Jun 17) and Bundesbank Nagel Speech (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
SHARE
Germany HICP All Items YoY - DE
Loading chart data...
About Germany HICP All Items YoY — Germany
DEFINITION
Germany's HICP All Items YoY inflation fell to 2.0% in December 2025 from 2.6% in November, marking a significant decline and matching the ECB's target. December's reading is the lowest since July 2025, reflecting easing energy and food price pressures while services inflation remained steady. Bund yields dipped on the softer print, reducing expectations for further ECB tightening ahead of upcoming wage and commodity data. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2025): actual 2 Percent. Prior reading (Nov 2025): 2.6 Percent. Before that (Oct 2025): 2.3 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.