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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Government Budget fell to -4.8% in December 2020
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2021
Germany Government Budget fell to -4.8% in December 2020, released January 2021, down 6.3% from November's 1.5% reading.
Latest Release
-4.800000
Actual
—
Consensus
1.500000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Bullish DE | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Government Budget (Germany) was reported at -4.8% in January 2021. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.5%. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with DAX (Bullish DE). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (May 29) and Unemployed Persons (May 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2021.
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Government Budget - DE
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About Government Budget — Germany
DEFINITION
Deficit The Government Budget Deficit is a financial indicator that measures the amount by which a government's expenditures exceed its revenues in a given period of time. It reflects the financial health of a country's government and can have significant impacts on its economy, including inflation and interest rates. A high budget deficit may indicate a need for increased borrowing or tax increases, while a low deficit may suggest a strong economy and prudent fiscal management. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can provide insights into a government's spending and revenue patterns, and its overall fiscal sustainability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2021): actual -4.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2021): -4.8 %. Before that (Jan 2020): 1.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bullish DE, r=0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.