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Data from Destatis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Unemployment Rate held to 6.4% in October 2026
DestatisMonthlyReleased October 2026
Germany Unemployment Rate held to 6.4% in October 2026. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.1%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 6.4%, vs 6.33% in the prior 3-month window. Unemployment Rate is now the highest in 38 months.
Latest Release
6.4
Actual
6.4
Consensus
6.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.01 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 6.43
Actual: 6.4
Error: +0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.77 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Germany) was reported at 6.4% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 6.4% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.33%, ranging from 6.3% to 6.4% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.4%, up from the prior three at 6.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.04%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.09%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 6.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.01%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate MoM (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - DE
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About Unemployment Rate — Germany
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 6.4 %, consensus 6.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 6.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 6.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR, r=-0.77) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices MoM | 2.1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices YoY | 10.4 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 10.35 | Low |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.43 | High |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 3.016 | 3.012 | 3.017 | 3.02 | Medium |
| 08:55 | DE | Employment Change | 4 | 12 | 5 | 5.00 | High |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.2 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.15 | High |