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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Consumer Confidence fell to -17.9% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Eurozone Consumer Confidence fell to -17.9% in October 2026, down 1.1% from September's -16.8% reading. The reading matched the -17.9% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 3.7%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged -16.38%, vs -17.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 14th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-17.9
Actual
-17.9
Consensus
-16.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.66 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -17.96
Actual: -17.9
Error: -0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (European Union) was reported at -17.9% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of -17.9% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of -16.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -15.68%, ranging from -19% to -12.2% across 19 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -17.43%, down from the prior three at -15.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.16%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.93%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged -15.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.66%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - EU
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About Consumer Confidence — European Union
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual -17.9 %, consensus -17.9 %. Prior reading (Oct 2026): -17.9 %. Before that (Sep 2026): -16.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -3.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33.9 | 34.7 | 38 | 35.95 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 24.8 | 20.8 | 22 | 23.40 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.20 | Medium |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -17.9 | -16.8 | -17.9 | -17.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |