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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Balance of Trade MoM fell to -1,971M in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
New Zealand Balance of Trade MoM fell to -1,971M in September 2026, released October 2026, down 435M from August's -1,536M reading. The reading missed the -775M consensus by 1,196M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -16.29M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade MoM averaged -1,649M, vs 914.33M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade MoM is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
-1971
Actual
-775
Consensus
-1536
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±698.5 million
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -1,112
Actual: -1,971
Error: +859
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade MoM (New Zealand) was reported at -1,971.00 million in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -775.00 million by 1,196.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -1,536.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -397.57 million, ranging from -1,971.00 million to 1,920.00 million across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1,756.33 million, down from the prior three at 914.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 698.50 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Nov 3) and Unemployment Rate (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade MoM - NZ
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About Balance of Trade MoM — New Zealand
DEFINITION
New Zealand's Balance of Trade MoM for October registered at -1971 million NZD, missing the estimate of -775 million NZD. This represents a deterioration from September's -1536 million NZD, indicating a widening trade deficit. The deeper shortfall pressures the New Zealand dollar and may influence the Reserve Bank's upcoming monetary policy decisions. Updated 10/18/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -1,971 M, consensus -775 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -1,349 M. Before that (Jul 2026): -1,949 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.46) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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