Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Balance of Trade MoM fell to -1,949M in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
New Zealand Balance of Trade MoM fell to -1,949M in July 2026, released August 2026, down 1,712M from June's -237M reading. The reading missed the -175M consensus by 1,774M. Balance of Trade MoM has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade MoM averaged 411.5M, vs 787M in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-1949
Actual
-175
Consensus
-237
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±545 million
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -250.5
Actual: -1,949
Error: +1,698.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade MoM (New Zealand) was reported at -1,949.00 million in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -175.00 million by 1,774.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -237.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Sep 15) and Current Account (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade MoM - NZ
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade MoM — New Zealand
DEFINITION
New Zealand's Balance of Trade MoM for August plunged to -1949 million NZD, missing the estimate of -175 million and sharply down from July's -237 million. This marks a significant deterioration in trade balance compared to the prior month. Market focus will remain on upcoming trade data and central bank commentary amid this widening deficit. Updated 8/20/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -1,949 M, consensus -175 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 23 M. Before that (May 2026): 800 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 0.2 | 3.4 | 3 | 1.60 | Low |
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -0.80 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:35 | NZ | 3-Month Bill Auction | 2.902 | 2.878 | 2.809 | 2.86 | Low |
| 21:00 | NZ | Westpac Consumer Confidence | 80.4 | 82.3 | 76.05 | Low | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -2.65 | -2.64 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -7.5 | -7.49 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 22:45 | NZ | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |