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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Balance of Trade MoM fell to 23M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
New Zealand Balance of Trade MoM fell to 23M in June 2026, released July 2026, down 554M from May's 577M reading. The reading missed the 250M consensus by 227M. Balance of Trade MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade MoM averaged 1,360M, vs 220.5M in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
23
Actual
250
Consensus
577
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±514 million
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 466.25
Actual: 23
Error: +443.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade MoM (New Zealand) was reported at 23.00 million in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 250.00 million by 227.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 577.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade MoM - NZ
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About Balance of Trade MoM — New Zealand
DEFINITION
New Zealand's Balance of Trade MoM for June came in at 23 million NZD, significantly missing the 250 million NZD estimate. This represents a sharp decline from May's 577 million NZD, indicating a substantial contraction in trade surplus. Market focus now shifts to upcoming economic data and central bank commentary for further guidance. Updated 7/21/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 23 M, consensus 250 M. Prior reading (May 2026): 800 M. Before that (Apr 2026): 1,920 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Sunday, August 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Building Permits MoM | -4 | -2.3 | -2.30 | Low | |