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New Zealand Trade Balance climbed to 970M in March 2025, released April 2025, up 578M from February's 392M reading. The print exceeded the 80M consensus by 890M. Trade Balance has now risen for 3 consecutive months.
across last 3 releases
Apr 2025
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
Trade Balance (New Zealand) was reported at 970.00 million in April 2025. This beat the market consensus of 80.00 million by 890.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 392.00 million.
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
Same-country events in the next 14 days include RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (May 27) and Monetary Policy Statement (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2025.
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Jul 2025): actual -578 M, consensus 70 M. Prior reading (Mar 2025): 970 M. Before that (Feb 2025): 510 M.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Wednesday, May 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | Medium | ||
| Thursday, May 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:00 | ANZ Business Confidence | -10.6 | -8 | -11.90 | Medium | ||
| 22:00 | ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | 80.3 | 81.5 | 81.50 | Low | ||
| Friday, May 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:00 | ANZ Business Confidence | -10.6 | -8 | -11.90 | Medium | ||