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Data from Stats NZ. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Trade Balance climbed to 970M in March 2025
Stats NZMonthlyReleased April 2025
New Zealand Trade Balance climbed to 970M in March 2025, released April 2025, up 578M from February's 392M reading. The print exceeded the 80M consensus by 890M. Trade Balance has now risen for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
970
Actual
80
Consensus
392
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±881.5 million
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Apr 2025
Predicted: 88.5
Actual: 970
Error: -881.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (New Zealand) was reported at 970.00 million in April 2025. This beat the market consensus of 80.00 million by 890.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 392.00 million.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (May 27) and Monetary Policy Statement (May 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2025.
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Trade Balance - NZ
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About Trade Balance — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2025): actual -578 M, consensus 70 M. Prior reading (Mar 2025): 970 M. Before that (Feb 2025): 510 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.