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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Balance of Trade YoY fell to -3,750M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
New Zealand Balance of Trade YoY fell to -3,750M in June 2026, released July 2026, down 140M from May's -3,610M reading.
Latest Release
-3750.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
-3610.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade YoY (New Zealand) was reported at -3,750.00 million in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of -3,610.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade YoY - NZ
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About Balance of Trade YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
New Zealand's Balance of Trade YoY for June registered at -3750 million NZD, worsening from May's -3370 million NZD. The trade deficit expanded year-over-year, reflecting a deeper shortfall compared to the previous month. Market focus will remain on upcoming trade data and central bank commentary amid ongoing external pressures. Updated 7/21/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -3,750 M. Prior reading (May 2026): -3,370 M. Before that (Apr 2026): -2,760 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Sunday, August 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Building Permits MoM | -4 | -2.3 | -2.30 | Low | |