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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Balance of Trade YoY fell to -6,180M in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
New Zealand Balance of Trade YoY fell to -6,180M in September 2026, released October 2026, down 570M from August's -5,610M reading.
Latest Release
-6180.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
-5610.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade YoY (New Zealand) was reported at -6,180.00 million in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of -5,610.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -4,248.00 million, ranging from -6,180.00 million to -2,760.00 million across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -5,618.67 million, down from the prior three at -3,293.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/NZD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Nov 3) and Unemployment Rate (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade YoY - NZ
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About Balance of Trade YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
New Zealand's Balance of Trade YoY for September showed a deficit of -6180 million NZD, worsening from August's -5610 million NZD. The trade gap expanded further, reflecting a deepening imbalance compared to the prior month. Market focus will remain on upcoming trade data and central bank commentary amid persistent external pressures. Updated 10/18/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -6,180 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -5,440 M. Before that (Jul 2026): -5,236 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/NZD (Bullish AUD, r=0.74) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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