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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Budget Balance climbed to -9.31B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
New Zealand Budget Balance climbed to -9.31B in May 2026, up 5.49B from April's -14.8B reading.
Latest Release
-9.310000
Actual
—
Consensus
-14.800000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (New Zealand) was reported at -9.31 billion in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -14.80 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Budget Balance - NZ
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About Budget Balance — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -9.31 B. Prior reading (Jul 2025): -14.8 B. Before that (Jan 2025): -9.99 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary headwind in the projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | NZ | ANZ Business Confidence | 56.1 | 36.6 | 36 | 46.05 | Medium |
| 22:00 | NZ | ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | 99.3 | 91.3 | 90.5 | 94.90 | Low |