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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Trade Balance fell to 1B in August 2025
EurostatMonthlyReleased October 2025
Eurozone Trade Balance fell to 1B in August 2025, released October 2025, down 11.7B from July's 12.7B reading. The reading missed the 6.9B consensus by 5.9B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 15.35B. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged 9.7B, vs 21.73B in the prior 3-month window. Trade Balance is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
1
Actual
6.9
Consensus
12.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.45 billion
across last 8 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: 4.3
Actual: 1
Error: +3.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (European Union) was reported at 1.00 billion in October 2025. This missed the market consensus of 6.90 billion by 5.90 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 12.70 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.80 billion, down from the prior three at 20.97 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6.45 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun 16) and Economic Sentiment (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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Trade Balance - EU
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About Trade Balance — European Union
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2025): actual 1 B, consensus 6.9 B. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 12.4 B. Before that (Jun 2025): 7 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.