Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Balance of Trade climbed to 8.6B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Eurozone Balance of Trade climbed to 8.6B in June 2026, released August 2026, up 17.6B from May's -9B reading. The print exceeded the -2.2B consensus by 10.8B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 7.44B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -0.33B, vs 4.8B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 40th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
8.6
Actual
-2.2
Consensus
-9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.22 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -4.3
Actual: 8.6
Error: -12.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.77 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (European Union) was reported at 8.60 billion in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of -2.20 billion by 10.80 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -9.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.22 billion, ranging from -7.80 billion to 19.40 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.07 billion, down from the prior three at 6.17 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.28 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 9.40 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 12.63 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.23 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep 15) and ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - EU
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — European Union
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 8.6 B, consensus -2.2 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -7.8 B. Before that (Apr 2026): -1 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR, r=-0.77) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Balance of Trade | 8.6 | 3.7 | -0.70 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 31.4 | 39.9 | 48.25 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | -0.4 | -0.50 | Medium | |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Production YoY | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Wage Growth YoY | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Labour Cost Index YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | 2.98 | Low |