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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Balance of Trade fell to -16.1B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Eurozone Balance of Trade fell to -16.1B in August 2026, released October 2026, down 26.8B from July's 10.7B reading. The reading missed the 14.7B consensus by 30.8B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 7.72B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 11.4B, vs -0.33B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
-16.1
Actual
14.7
Consensus
10.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±9.29 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 20.03
Actual: -16.1
Error: +36.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (European Union) was reported at -16.10 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 14.70 billion by 30.80 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 10.70 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.83 billion, ranging from -16.10 billion to 19.40 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.23 billion, up from the prior three at -0.33 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.70 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 9.52 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -3.50 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 9.29 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - EU
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About Balance of Trade — European Union
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -16.1 B, consensus 14.7 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 14.2 B. Before that (Jun 2026): 8.6 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -3.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33.9 | 34.7 | 38 | 35.95 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 24.8 | 20.8 | 22 | 23.40 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.20 | Medium |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -17.9 | -16.8 | -17.9 | -17.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |