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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to -0.6% in Q1 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Mexico GDP Growth Rate QoQ fell to -0.6% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, down 1.5% from December's 0.9% reading. The print exceeded the -0.8% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.16%. The reading is in the 16th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.6
Actual
-0.8
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.75
Actual: -0.6
Error: -0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Mexico) was reported at -0.6% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.8% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.26%, ranging from -0.6% to 0.9% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.37%, up from the prior three at 0%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.58%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.58%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate QoQ has averaged -0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate QoQ - MX
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About GDP Growth Rate QoQ — Mexico
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage change in a country's gross domestic product from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and growth of the economy, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicates a growing economy, while a negative rate suggests a decline. This indicator is an important tool for assessing the current state and predicting future trends of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.6 %, consensus -0.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -0.8 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.69) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.