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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Trade (% of GDP) climbed to 79.92 Percent in December 2025
World BankYearlyReleased December 2025
Mexico Trade (% of GDP) climbed to 79.92 Percent in December 2025, up 4.5 Percent from November's 75.43 Percent reading.
Latest Release
79.923953
Actual
—
Consensus
75.425902
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade (% of GDP) (Mexico) was reported at 79.92 Percent in December 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 75.43 Percent. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a yearly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 76.36 Percent, down from the prior three at 82.91 Percent. In December readings over the past 3 years, Trade (% of GDP) has averaged 76.36 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN). A secondary relationship exists with WTI Crude, positively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Jul 27) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Trade (% of GDP) - MX
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About Trade (% of GDP) — Mexico
DEFINITION
Mexico's Trade (% of GDP) rose to 79.923953% in December 2025, surpassing the previous 75.425902% recorded in December 2024. This increase signals a strengthening trade position after a period of lower activity. Market participants will watch for further data to assess the impact on Mexico's economic outlook. Updated 7/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released annually.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, July 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Balance of Trade | 2.259 | 2.4 | 5.01 | Medium | |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.6 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.2 | 1 | 1.00 | Medium | |