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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Central Government Debt (% of GDP) climbed to 50.27 Percent in December 2024
World BankYearlyReleased December 2024
Mexico Central Government Debt (% of GDP) climbed to 50.27 Percent in December 2024, up 5.12 Percent from November's 45.15 Percent reading.
Latest Release
50.270951
Actual
—
Consensus
45.153486
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Central Government Debt (% of GDP) (Mexico) was reported at 50.27 Percent in December 2024. The reading rose from the previous value of 45.15 Percent. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a yearly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 46.46 Percent, up from the prior three at 44.01 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN). A secondary relationship exists with WTI Crude, positively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Jul 27) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2024.
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Central Government Debt (% of GDP) - MX
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About Central Government Debt (% of GDP) — Mexico
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released annually.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, July 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Balance of Trade | 2.259 | 2.28 | 4.89 | Medium | |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Medium | |