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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Producer Price Index YoY fell to 2.1% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Mexico Producer Price Index YoY fell to 2.1% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.88% from May's 2.98% reading. The reading missed the 2.7% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.9%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 2.79%, vs 1.63% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 22nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.1
Actual
2.7
Consensus
2.98
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.82 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Mexico) was reported at 2.1% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.7% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.98%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.39%, ranging from 1.1% to 3.8% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.06%, up from the prior three at 2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.83%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.05%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - MX
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Mexico's Producer Price Index YoY for June came in at 2.100000%, missing the 2.700000% estimate and down from May's 2.980000%. The slowdown signals easing inflationary pressures in the producer sector after a peak in May. Market focus now shifts to upcoming inflation data and central bank policy decisions amid this moderation. Updated 7/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 2.1 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 2.98 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.82) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | Medium |