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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.16% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Mexico Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.16% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.03% from May's 0.19% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
0.160000
Actual
0.160000
Consensus
0.190000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.14
Actual: 0.16
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM (Mexico) was reported at 0.16% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.16% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.19%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.17%, ranging from 0.04% to 0.31% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.19%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.08%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.11%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.16%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM - MX
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About Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, during the middle of the month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall inflation trends and helps investors and policymakers make informed decisions about the economy. It is considered a reliable measure of core inflation and is closely monitored by financial experts and analysts.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.16 %, consensus 0.16 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.13 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.18 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 46.8 | 46.75 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.5 | 50.70 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | Consumer Confidence | 43.8 | 44.1 | 44.10 | Medium | |