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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.25% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Mexico Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.25% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.08% from August's 0.17% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.18% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
0.250000
Actual
0.180000
Consensus
0.170000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.14
Actual: 0.25
Error: -0.11
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM (Mexico) was reported at 0.25% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.18% by 0.07%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.17%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.18%, ranging from 0.04% to 0.31% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.08%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.11%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.22%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Nov 3) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM - MX
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About Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, during the middle of the month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall inflation trends and helps investors and policymakers make informed decisions about the economy. It is considered a reliable measure of core inflation and is closely monitored by financial experts and analysts.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 0.25 %, consensus 0.18 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.17 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 0.08 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |