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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico CPI YoY fell to 3.12% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Mexico CPI YoY fell to 3.12% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.25% from June's 3.37% reading. The reading matched expectations. CPI YoY has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, CPI YoY averaged 3.66%, vs 4.52% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
3.12
Actual
3.12
Consensus
3.37
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.06
Actual: 3.12
Error: -0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Mexico) was reported at 3.12% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.12% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.37%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24) and Balance of Trade (Sep 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI YoY - MX
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About CPI YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Mexico's CPI YoY for August came in at 3.120000%, matching estimates and down from July's 3.370000%. This marks a continued deceleration in inflation, reflecting easing price pressures since June's 3.94%. Market focus now shifts to upcoming central bank decisions amid this steady disinflation trend. Updated 8/7/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.12 %, consensus 3.12 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.37 %. Before that (May 2026): 3.94 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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