Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Wage Growth YoY fell to 3.0% in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Eurozone Wage Growth YoY fell to 3.0% in October 2025, released March 2026, down 0.2% from September's 3.2% reading. The print exceeded the 2.8% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.26%. Wage Growth YoY is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
3
Actual
2.8
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.28 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 2.8
Actual: 3
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Bullish EU | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Wage Growth YoY (European Union) was reported at 3% in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.8% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.23%, down from the prior three at 3.97%. In March readings over the past 3 years, Wage Growth YoY has averaged 3.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun 16) and Economic Sentiment (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
SHARE
Wage Growth YoY - EU
Loading chart data...
About Wage Growth YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
Wage Growth YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in average wages earned by workers. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the labor market and the purchasing power of consumers. A positive growth in wages indicates a strong economy and potential for increased consumer spending, while a negative growth may signal economic downturn and reduced consumer confidence. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it can impact various aspects of the economy, such as inflation, consumer spending, and corporate profits.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 3 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 3 %. Before that (Apr 2025): 3.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.