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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Wage Growth YoY fell to 3.0% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Eurozone Wage Growth YoY fell to 3.0% in April 2026, released September 2026, down 0.4% from March's 3.4% reading. The reading missed the 3.2% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.98%. Wage Growth YoY is now the lowest in 42 months.
Latest Release
3
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.28 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.2
Actual: 3
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Wage Growth YoY (European Union) was reported at 3% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.13%, down from the prior three at 3.37%. In September readings over the past 3 years, Wage Growth YoY has averaged 3.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Wage Growth YoY - EU
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About Wage Growth YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
Wage Growth YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in average wages earned by workers. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the labor market and the purchasing power of consumers. A positive growth in wages indicates a strong economy and potential for increased consumer spending, while a negative growth may signal economic downturn and reduced consumer confidence. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it can impact various aspects of the economy, such as inflation, consumer spending, and corporate profits.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -3.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33.9 | 34.7 | 38 | 35.95 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 24.8 | 20.8 | 22 | 23.40 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.20 | Medium |
| 10:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -17.9 | -16.8 | -17.9 | -17.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | EU | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:15 | EU | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |