Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Unemployment Rate climbed to 2.5% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Mexico Unemployment Rate climbed to 2.5% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.1% from March's 2.4% reading. The print came in cooler than the 2.7% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.67%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 2.5%, vs 2.6% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 25th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
2.7
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.7
Actual: 2.5
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Mexico) was reported at 2.5% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.7% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.69%, ranging from 2.4% to 3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.6%, up from the prior three at 2.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.22%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 2.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Unemployment Rate - MX
Loading chart data...
About Unemployment Rate — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.5 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 2.4 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.