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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.7% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased August 2026
France GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.7% in April 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from March's 0.8% reading. The reading matched the 0.7% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.86%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 13 months.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.7
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.65
Actual: 0.7
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (France) was reported at 0.7% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.7% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.91%, ranging from 0.7% to 1.2% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, down from the prior three at 1.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.17%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.25%). In August readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 0.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23) and S&P Global Services PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - FR
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — France
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low |