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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.9% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
France GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.9% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 0.4% from December's 1.3% reading. The reading missed the 1.1% consensus by 0.2%. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
0.9
Actual
1.1
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.1
Actual: 0.9
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (France) was reported at 0.9% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.1% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.93%, ranging from 0.7% to 1.2% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.07%, up from the prior three at 0.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.26%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 0.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - FR
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — France
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.9 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 1.1 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.