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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.7% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
France GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.7% in April 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from March's 0.8% reading. The reading missed the 0.8% consensus by 0.1%. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.8
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.7
Actual: 0.7
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (France) was reported at 0.7% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.93%, ranging from 0.7% to 1.2% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.93%, down from the prior three at 0.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.25%). In July readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 0.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 21) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - FR
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — France
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Friday, August 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | FR | CPI YoY | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.10 | Low | |