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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Business Climate Indicator climbed to 98 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
France Business Climate Indicator climbed to 98 in August 2026, up 1 from July's 97 reading. The reading matched the 98 consensus. Business Climate Indicator has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Climate Indicator averaged 95.5, vs 95.5 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
98
Actual
98
Consensus
97
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.17
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 98.25
Actual: 98
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAC 40 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Climate Indicator (France) was reported at 98.00 in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 98.00 exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 97.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 96.70, ranging from 94.00 to 99.00 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 96.33, up from the prior three at 96.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.55) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.95). In August readings over the past 3 years, Business Climate Indicator has averaged 97.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAC 40 (Bearish CAC 40). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.17.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23) and S&P Global Services PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Business Climate Indicator - FR
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About Business Climate Indicator — France
DEFINITION
The Business Climate Indicator is a key financial metric used to assess the overall health and outlook of a particular business sector or economy. It takes into account various factors such as consumer confidence, market trends, and business performance to provide a comprehensive picture of the current business environment. This indicator is often used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and predictions about future economic conditions. A high Business Climate Indicator typically indicates a favorable business environment, while a low indicator may suggest potential challenges or risks.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 98, consensus 98. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 97. Before that (Jun 2026): 94.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAC 40 (Bearish CAC 40, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low |