Business Climate Indicator - FR Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
France Business Climate Indicator
98
Actual
98
Consensus
97
Previous
France’s Business Climate Indicator for November 2025 matched expectations at 98, surprising with a steady rise from 97 in October. This 1-point increase signals moderate expansion and marks the highest reading since March 2025, reflecting improving business sentiment amid ongoing challenges. Looking ahead, the cautious optimism supports the ECB’s balanced policy stance, though risks from geopolitical tensions and fiscal constraints warrant close monitoring. Updated 11/21/25
Business Climate Indicator - FR
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France’s Business Climate Indicator Edges Higher in November 2025: Implications and Outlook
Key Takeaways: France’s Business Climate Indicator rose to 98 in November 2025, up from 97 in October, signaling a modest improvement in economic sentiment. This marks the highest reading since March 2025 and surpasses the 12-month average of 96.40. The uptick reflects resilience amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and cautious monetary policy. However, downside risks from external shocks and fiscal constraints remain. Forward-looking scenarios suggest a 55% probability of continued gradual improvement, with risks skewed toward stagnation or mild contraction depending on global developments.
The latest release of France’s Business Climate Indicator, published on November 21, 2025, shows a slight but meaningful improvement to 98, up from 97 in October. This figure is drawn from the Sigmanomics database and represents the most recent snapshot of business sentiment across key sectors including manufacturing, services, and retail. The indicator’s rise suggests a cautiously optimistic mood among French firms despite persistent headwinds.
Drivers this month
Manufacturing confidence increased by 0.50 points, driven by stronger export orders.
Service sector sentiment improved by 0.30 points, reflecting steady domestic demand.
Retail trade showed marginal gains, buoyed by early holiday season sales.
Policy pulse
The current reading sits just below the neutral 100 mark but above the 12-month average of 96.40, indicating moderate expansion. This aligns with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious stance on interest rates, maintaining a steady policy to balance inflation control with growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EUR/USD pair strengthened by 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved confidence in the eurozone’s economic trajectory. French government bond yields remained stable, while equity markets showed mild gains in sectors linked to domestic consumption.
Examining core macroeconomic indicators provides context for the Business Climate Indicator’s movement. France’s GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 0.30% quarter-on-quarter, supported by resilient consumer spending and export growth. Inflation remains contained at 2.10% year-on-year, close to the ECB’s target. Unemployment held steady at 7.40%, reflecting a balanced labor market.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The ECB has maintained its key interest rate at 3.50%, signaling a wait-and-see approach amid mixed inflation signals. Credit conditions remain moderately tight but accessible, with lending growth at 2.20% year-on-year. The French banking sector shows stable capital buffers, supporting ongoing credit flow to businesses.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
France’s fiscal deficit narrowed slightly to 3.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, aided by improved tax revenues and controlled public spending. The government’s commitment to targeted investment in green infrastructure and digital transformation continues to underpin medium-term growth prospects.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions pose downside risks. Energy price volatility remains a concern, though recent EU-level agreements on strategic reserves have helped stabilize markets.
The Business Climate Indicator in France rose to 98 in November 2025, compared to 97 in October and a 12-month average of 96.40. This marks a steady upward trend since the low of 95 recorded in January 2025. The improvement is broad-based, with manufacturing and services sectors leading the gains.
Compared to the same period last year, the indicator is up by 2 points, signaling a gradual recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn and subsequent supply chain shocks. The indicator’s trajectory suggests a return to pre-crisis sentiment levels, though still shy of the 100 mark that signals full confidence.
Drivers this month
Export orders in manufacturing increased by 1.20%, lifting sector confidence.
Service sector demand rose 0.80%, supported by domestic consumption.
The indicator’s rise supports the ECB’s current monetary stance, which balances inflation containment with growth support. The reading suggests that the economy is absorbing rate hikes without sharp contraction.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: French equities, particularly in consumer discretionary sectors, gained 0.40% following the release. The CAC 40 index responded positively, reflecting improved business sentiment.
This chart highlights a steady upward trend in France’s business confidence, reversing a two-month plateau. The data suggests resilience in the face of external shocks and signals a cautiously optimistic economic outlook for the near term.
Looking ahead, the Business Climate Indicator’s trajectory suggests several possible scenarios for France’s economy over the next 6-12 months. The baseline forecast assigns a 55% probability to continued gradual improvement, driven by stable domestic demand and easing supply constraints.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
Stronger-than-expected export growth amid global recovery.
Acceleration in investment due to fiscal stimulus and green transition.
Inflation stabilizes near target, allowing for accommodative monetary policy.
Base scenario (55% probability)
Modest GDP growth around 1.20% annually.
Business sentiment improves steadily but remains below pre-crisis highs.
Monetary policy remains cautious, balancing inflation and growth risks.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Geopolitical shocks disrupt supply chains and energy markets.
Inflation spikes force aggressive ECB tightening, dampening growth.
Fiscal constraints limit government support, leading to stagnation.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Longer-term, France’s business climate is influenced by structural shifts including digitalization, demographic changes, and climate policy. Investments in innovation and sustainability are expected to underpin competitiveness, though challenges remain in labor market flexibility and productivity growth.
The November 2025 Business Climate Indicator for France signals a cautiously optimistic economic environment. The steady rise to 98 reflects resilience amid global uncertainties and balanced policy measures. While risks from geopolitical tensions and inflation persist, the data suggests that French businesses are adapting and preparing for moderate growth. Policymakers should continue to monitor external shocks and support structural reforms to sustain momentum.
Key Markets Likely to React to Business Climate Indicator
The Business Climate Indicator closely tracks sectors sensitive to economic sentiment and policy shifts. Key tradable symbols to watch include BNP.PA (French banking sector exposure), EURUSD (currency impact on trade), SIE.DE (industrial and manufacturing outlook), BTCUSD (risk sentiment proxy), and EURGBP (cross-currency trade dynamics).
Insight: Business Climate Indicator vs. BNP.PA since 2020
Since 2020, the Business Climate Indicator and BNP Paribas stock (BNP.PA) have shown a positive correlation of approximately 0.68. Periods of rising business confidence typically coincide with BNP’s share price gains, reflecting improved credit conditions and corporate profitability. The November 2025 uptick aligns with a 3% rise in BNP.PA over the past month, underscoring the indicator’s market relevance.
FAQs
What is the Business Climate Indicator for France?
The Business Climate Indicator measures sentiment among French businesses across sectors, reflecting economic health and outlook.
How does the indicator affect monetary policy?
Central banks use the indicator to gauge economic momentum, influencing interest rate decisions and financial conditions.
What are the risks to France’s business climate?
Risks include geopolitical tensions, inflation volatility, supply chain disruptions, and fiscal constraints.
Takeaway: France’s Business Climate Indicator’s steady rise to 98 in November 2025 signals cautious optimism, balancing growth prospects with persistent risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - FR Events
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
2.3
1.8
1.80
High
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.50
Medium
06:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0.3
-0.6
0.5
0.58
Low
05:30
FR
Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.3
0.1
0.13
Low
05:30
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.3
0
-0.02
Low
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-26.1
18.2
12
16.85
Medium
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2808.4
2834.5
2846.5
2842.78
Low
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
92
91
92
92.17
Medium
Friday, August 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
99
95
96
95.67
Medium
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
97
94
96
95.67
Low
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
42.1
44
44.4
43.72
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
55
50.1
50.3
51.13
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
52.7
49.1
49.1
49.73
Medium
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.10
Medium
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.30
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.10
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.60
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
FR
Unemployment Rate
7.3
7.5
7.5
7.50
Medium
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-6.1
-7.7
-7.5
-7.77
Medium
06:45
FR
Imports
57.7
57.8
61.2
60.67
Low
06:45
FR
Exports
51.7
50
51.7
51.52
Low
06:45
FR
Current Account
-2.6
-2.5
-1.4
-2.47
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
39.7
41
41.5
39.77
Low
06:45
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
49.1
48.8
49.5
50.13
Low
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
50.1
49.6
50.7
51.53
High
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-103.5
-113.5
-130
-130.60
Low
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
0.8
-2.2
1
0.70
Medium
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
44
45.4
44.1
43.42
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.40
High
06:45
FR
PPI YoY
-6
-6.7
2.2
0.18
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.30
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.30
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.70
Low
06:45
FR
PPI MoM
-0.3
-1.6
0.4
-0.25
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
1.5
0.8
0.88
High
05:30
FR
Household Consumption MoM
-0.5
0.8
0.2
0.28
Low
05:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.23
High
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
91
90
90
90.17
Medium
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
18.2
40.9
8.9
13.75
Medium
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2834.5
2816.3
2825
2821.28
Low
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
94
99
98
97.67
Low
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
95
99
99
98.67
Medium
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
49.5
48.8
48.9
49.53
Medium
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
44.1
45.4
45.8
45.12
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
50.7
49.6
49.8
50.63
High
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
FR
Current Account
-3.1
-3.5
-1.2
-2.27
Low
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.50
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.10
Medium
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
-2.1
0.6
-0.5
-0.80
Medium
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-8
-7.5
-7.2
-7.47
Medium
Thursday, July 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
41
43.4
49
47.27
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
FR
New Car Registrations YoY
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
-1.47
Low
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
49.6
49.3
48.8
49.63
High
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.8
48.9
48.2
48.83
Low
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-113.5
-91.6
-115
-115.60
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.4
46.4
45.3
44.62
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
1.5
-0.9
0.1
0.18
Low
06:45
FR
PPI YoY
-6.7
-6.7
-6.1
-8.12
Low
06:45
FR
PPI MoM
-1.4
-3.6
-0.7
-1.35
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.50
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.50
High
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2816.3
2775.4
2810
2806.28
Low
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
40.9
-36.8
-17
-12.15
Medium
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
89
90
89
89.17
Medium
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
48.8
49.3
50
50.83
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.3
46.4
46.8
46.12
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.2
48.9
49.5
50.13
Medium
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
99
99
98
97.67
Low
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
99
99
100
99.67
Medium
Friday, June 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.5
0
0.00
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.4
2.7
2.70
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.20
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.20
Medium
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Exports
51.2
52.1
52.6
52.42
Low
06:45
FR
Current Account
-1.8
0.6
1.5
0.43
Low
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-7.6
-5.4
-5.4
-5.67
Medium
06:45
FR
Imports
58.8
57.5
57.7
57.17
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
43.4
41.5
44
42.27
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
49.3
51.3
49.4
50.23
High
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.9
50.5
49.1
49.73
Low
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
-0.2
0.5
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-91.6
-52.8
-60
-60.60
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.4
45.3
46.7
46.02
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.20
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.5
0.2
0.20
Medium
06:45
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.23
Medium
06:45
FR
PPI MoM
-3.6
-1
-1.1
-1.75
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.4
2.5
2.50
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.40
High
06:45
FR
PPI YoY
-6.8
8.3
-3.5
-5.52
Low
06:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
-0.8
0.5
0.2
0.28
Low
06:45
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
0.8
1.1
1.18
Medium
05:30
FR
Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0.3
0
0.1
0.13
Low
05:30
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
90
90
91
91.17
Medium
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2775.4
2812.2
2810.9
2807.18
Low
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-36.8
-8.4
-12
-7.15
Medium
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
99
100
100
99.67
Medium
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
99
99
100
99.67
Low
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.7
45.3
45.8
45.12
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
49.1
50.5
51
51.63
Medium
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
49.4
51.3
51.7
52.53
High
Friday, May 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
FR
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.5
7.4
7.40
Medium
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.50
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.40
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.60
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.20
Medium
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
41.5
41
43
41.27
Low
06:45
FR
Imports
57.7
56.4
58.5
57.97
Low
06:45
FR
Exports
52.2
50.8
51.9
51.72
Low
06:45
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0.2
-0.1
0
-0.02
Low
06:45
FR
Current Account
1.3
0.3
-1.9
-2.97
Low
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-5.5
-5.6
-5
-5.27
Medium
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
51.3
48.3
50.5
51.33
High
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
50.5
48.3
49.9
50.53
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
-0.3
0.2
0.3
0.00
Medium
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-52.8
-44
-52
-52.60
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.50
Medium
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.20
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.10
High
06:45
FR
PPI MoM
-0.2
-1.7
-0.5
-1.15
Low
06:45
FR
PPI YoY
-7.5
-5.5
-7.7
-9.72
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.50
Low
05:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
0.8
0.9
0.98
High
05:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.13
High
05:30
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.28
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
90
91
92
92.17
Medium
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2812.2
2820.6
2801.9
2798.18
Low
10:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-8.4
-6.1
-10
-5.15
Medium
06:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
99
100
100
99.67
Low
06:45
FR
Business Confidence
100
103
102
101.67
Medium
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
49.9
48.3
49
49.63
Medium
07:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
44.9
46.2
44.9
44.22
High
07:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
50.5
48.3
48.9
49.73
High
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
3.2
2.4
2.40
Low
06:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.9
0.3
0.30
Low
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.9
0.2
0.20
Medium
06:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
3
2.3
2.30
Medium
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Exports
51.1
48.8
49.1
48.92
Low
06:45
FR
Current Account
0.9
-0.5
-1.3
-2.37
Low
06:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-5.2
-7.2
-7
-7.27
Medium
06:45
FR
Imports
56.296
56.048
55.7
55.17
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
41
41.9
44
42.27
Low
06:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
0.2
-0.9
0.5
0.20
Medium
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:15
FR
New Car Registrations YoY
-1.5
13
16
12.03
Low
07:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
48.3
48.4
47.8
48.63
High
07:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.3
48.1
47.7
48.33
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:45
FR
Budget Balance
-44.03
-25.74
-54.4
-55.00
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.2
47.1
45.8
45.12
High
Friday, March 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0
-0.6
0.2
0.28
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-15.8
2.5
12.3
17.15
Medium
11:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2811.9
2827.7
2840
2836.28
Low
07:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
91
90
90
90.17
Medium
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
47.8
48.4
48.7
49.53
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
45.8
47.1
47.5
46.82
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
47.7
48.1
48.6
49.23
Medium
07:45
FR
Business Confidence
102
101
100
99.67
Medium
07:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
100
98
97
96.67
Low
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.10
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3
3.1
2.9
2.90
Medium
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
-0.2
0.8
0.80
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.9
-0.2
0.9
0.90
Low
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-7.388
-6.421
-6.5
-6.77
Medium
07:45
FR
Imports
56.199
56.817
56.8
56.27
Low
07:45
FR
Current Account
-1
-0.2
-1.4
-2.47
Low
07:45
FR
Exports
48.811
50.396
50.6
50.42
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
41.9
39.6
41
39.27
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
48.1
44.6
47.7
48.33
Low
08:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
48.4
45.4
48
48.83
High
07:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
-1.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.40
Medium
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:25
FR
New Car Registrations YoY
13
9.2
12
8.03
Low
07:45
FR
Budget Balance
-25.74
-173.26
-27
-27.60
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
47.1
43.1
46.8
46.12
High
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.9
-0.2
0.7
0.70
Low
07:45
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0
0
0.03
Medium
07:45
FR
PPI MoM
-1.3
-0.1
0.3
-0.35
Low
07:45
FR
PPI YoY
-5.1
-1.3
-3.3
-5.32
Low
07:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
-0.3
0.3
-0.2
-0.12
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.1
2.7
2.70
High
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
-0.2
0.7
0.70
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.4
3
3.00
Low
07:45
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.78
Medium
06:30
FR
Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.2
-0.1
-0.07
Low
06:30
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
-0.1
0.2
0
-0.02
Low
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
2.5
-1.4
-6.2
-1.35
Medium
11:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2827.7
2825.2
2819
2815.28
Low
07:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
89
91
92
92.17
Medium
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
48
45.4
45.6
46.43
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
46.8
43.1
43.5
42.82
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
47.7
44.6
45
45.63
Medium
07:45
FR
Business Confidence
100
98
99
98.67
Medium
07:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
98
99
99
98.67
Low
Friday, February 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4.1
3.4
3.40
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.20
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.20
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.7
3.1
3.10
Medium
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
FR
Unemployment Rate
7.5
7.5
7.4
7.40
Medium
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Current Account
-0.7
-2.9
-2.7
-3.77
Low
07:45
FR
Exports
50.192
49.451
49.1
48.92
Low
07:45
FR
Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ
0
0.1
-0.1
-0.12
Low
07:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-6.829
-5.939
-6
-6.27
Medium
07:45
FR
Imports
57.021
55.395
54.9
54.37
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
FR
HCOB Construction PMI
39.6
42.6
43.4
41.67
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
HCOB Services PMI
45.4
45.7
45
45.83
High
08:50
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
44.6
44.8
44.2
44.83
Low
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Budget Balance
-173.26
-197.97
-173
-173.60
Low
07:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
0.5
0.2
-0.10
Medium
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
43.1
42.1
43.2
42.52
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
PPI MoM
0.1
2.3
0.5
-0.15
Low
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.20
Low
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
4.1
3.3
3.30
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.40
Medium
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.7
2.9
2.90
High
07:45
FR
PPI YoY
-0.9
0.3
-0.5
-2.52
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.28
High
06:30
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.38
Low
06:30
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0
0
0
0.03
High
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Consumer Confidence
91
89
90
90.17
Medium
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims
-1.4
5.2
9.4
14.25
Medium
11:00
FR
Jobseekers Total
2825.2
2826.6
2836
2832.28
Low
07:45
FR
Business Climate Indicator
98
98
98
97.67
Low
07:45
FR
Business Confidence
99
99
100
99.67
Medium
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
FR
HCOB Services PMI
45
45.7
46
46.83
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
43.2
42.1
42.5
41.82
High
08:15
FR
HCOB Composite PMI
44.2
44.8
45.2
45.83
Medium
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Budget Balance
-197.97
-177.71
-185
-185.60
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Household Consumption MoM
0.7
-0.9
-0.1
-0.02
Low
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.10
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3.7
3.5
3.7
3.70
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
3.9
4.1
4.10
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.10
Medium
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Industrial Production MoM
0.5
-0.3
0
-0.30
Medium
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
FR
Balance of Trade
-5.943
-8.455
-7.9
-8.17
Medium
07:45
FR
Exports
49.451
49.745
48.9
48.72
Low
07:45
FR
Current Account
-2.8
-3.4
-3.2
-4.27
Low
07:45
FR
Imports
55.395
58.2
57.7
57.17
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
FR
S&P Global Construction PMI
42.6
44.6
45.5
44.05
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:55
FR
New Car Registrations YoY
14.5
14
12
8.03
Low
08:50
FR
S&P Global Composite PMI
44.8
44.6
43.7
44.25
Low
08:50
FR
S&P Global Services PMI
45.7
45.4
44.3
45.00
Medium
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
3.9
4.1
4.10
Low
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
07:45
FR
Inflation Rate YoY
3.7
3.5
3.8
3.80
High
07:45
FR
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.30
Low
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:50
FR
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
42.1
42.9
42
42.05
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Business Climate Indicator in France Rises to 98 in November France’s Business Climate Indicator Shows Modest Improvement The Business Climate Indicator for France measures overall business sentiment by surveying key sectors such as manufacturing, services, and retail. In November 2025, the indicator increased to 98 from 97 in October, marking the highest level since March this year. Fast facts: latest value 98, monthly increase of 1 point, released on November 21, 2025. This rise suggests a cautious but positive outlook among French firms despite ongoing global uncertainties. According to Morgan Stanley’s chief European economist, “The steady uptick in France’s Business Climate Indicator reflects resilience in domestic demand and export strength, even as inflation pressures and geopolitical risks linger.” The European Central Bank’s steady interest rate policy appears to support this moderate expansion. Overall, the Business Climate Indicator for FR signals that businesses are adapting well, though vigilance remains necessary given external risks and fiscal constraints.
The Business Climate Indicator in France rose to 98 in November 2025, compared to 97 in October and a 12-month average of 96.40. This marks a steady upward trend since the low of 95 recorded in January 2025. The improvement is broad-based, with manufacturing and services sectors leading the gains.
Compared to the same period last year, the indicator is up by 2 points, signaling a gradual recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn and subsequent supply chain shocks. The indicator’s trajectory suggests a return to pre-crisis sentiment levels, though still shy of the 100 mark that signals full confidence.