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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Business Climate Indicator held to 94 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
France Business Climate Indicator held to 94 in May 2026. The reading matched the 94 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 2. Business Climate Indicator is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
94
Actual
94
Consensus
94
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.88
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 94.25
Actual: 94
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Business Climate Indicator (France) was reported at 94.00 in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 94.00 exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 96.60, ranging from 94.00 to 99.00 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 96.00, down from the prior three at 98.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.28) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.42). In May readings over the past 3 years, Business Climate Indicator has averaged 96.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.88.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Business Climate Indicator - FR
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About Business Climate Indicator — France
DEFINITION
The Business Climate Indicator is a key financial metric used to assess the overall health and outlook of a particular business sector or economy. It takes into account various factors such as consumer confidence, market trends, and business performance to provide a comprehensive picture of the current business environment. This indicator is often used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and predictions about future economic conditions. A high Business Climate Indicator typically indicates a favorable business environment, while a low indicator may suggest potential challenges or risks.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 94, consensus 94. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 94. Before that (Mar 2026): 97.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.