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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Business Climate Indicator climbed to 97 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
France Business Climate Indicator climbed to 97 in July 2026, up 2 from June's 95 reading. The reading matched the 95 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1. Over the past 3 months, Business Climate Indicator averaged 94, vs 96 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 72nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
97
Actual
95
Consensus
95
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.17
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 94.75
Actual: 97
Error: -2.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Climate Indicator (France) was reported at 97.00 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 95.00 by 2.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 95.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 96.50, ranging from 94.00 to 99.00 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 95.00, down from the prior three at 97.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.50) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.99). In July readings over the past 3 years, Business Climate Indicator has averaged 95.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.17.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 5) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Business Climate Indicator - FR
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About Business Climate Indicator — France
DEFINITION
The Business Climate Indicator is a key financial metric used to assess the overall health and outlook of a particular business sector or economy. It takes into account various factors such as consumer confidence, market trends, and business performance to provide a comprehensive picture of the current business environment. This indicator is often used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and predictions about future economic conditions. A high Business Climate Indicator typically indicates a favorable business environment, while a low indicator may suggest potential challenges or risks.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 97, consensus 95. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 94. Before that (May 2026): 94.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bearish EUR, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:30 | FR | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | Consumer Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.75 | High |
| 05:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 05:30 | FR | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | Household Consumption MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.95 | High |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.50 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | CPI MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | HICP YoY | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | HICP MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |