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Data from ZEW / IFO / GfK. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Gfk Consumer Confidence fell to -22.4 in February 2024
ZEW / IFO / GfKMonthlyReleased January 2025
Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence fell to -22.4 in February 2024, released January 2025, down 1 from January's -21.4 reading. The reading missed the -20 consensus by 2.4. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 7.3. Over the past 3 months, Gfk Consumer Confidence averaged -22.3, vs -20.5 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 70th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-22.4
Actual
-20
Consensus
-21.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.14
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: -20.88
Actual: -22.4
Error: +1.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Bullish DE | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gfk Consumer Confidence (Germany) was reported at -22.40 in January 2025. This missed the market consensus of -20.00 by 2.40. The reading fell from the previous value of -21.40. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -22.33, down from the prior three at -20.50.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with DAX (Bullish DE). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.14.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (May 29) and Unemployed Persons (May 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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Gfk Consumer Confidence - DE
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About Gfk Consumer Confidence — Germany
DEFINITION
Gfk Consumer Confidence is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of consumers towards the economy. It is based on a monthly survey of thousands of households, providing valuable insights into consumer spending habits and future economic trends. This indicator is closely monitored by businesses, investors, and policymakers as it can impact consumer behavior and ultimately, the performance of the economy. A high Gfk Consumer Confidence reading indicates a positive outlook, while a low reading may signal potential economic challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2024): actual -22.4, consensus -20. Prior reading (Jan 2024): -21.3. Before that (Dec 2023): -23.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bullish DE, r=0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.