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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Industrial Production YoY fell to -1.1% in August 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased October 2026
Eurozone Industrial Production YoY fell to -1.1% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.8% from July's -0.3% reading. The reading missed the -0.1% consensus by 1.0%. Industrial Production YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged 0.05%, vs -1.0% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.1
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.9 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.15
Actual: -1.1
Error: +1.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.75 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (European Union) was reported at -1.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.1% by 1%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.15%, ranging from -2.1% to 2.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.33%, up from the prior three at -1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.4%) is lower than the prior year (σ 48.93%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged 24.25%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.9%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Oct 20) and ECB President Lagarde Speech (Oct 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - EU
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About Industrial Production YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -1.1 Percent, consensus -0.1 Percent. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0 Percent. Before that (Jul 2026): 0 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.75) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Balance of Trade | -16.1 | 10.7 | 14.7 | -0.70 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Inflation Rate | 104.31 | 103.69 | 104.3 | 104.31 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.80 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.20 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | CPI n.s.a | 104.31 | 103.73 | 104.3 | 104.31 | Low |
| Tuesday, October 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | EU | Current Account | 36.5 | 16.9 | 16.90 | Low | |
| 08:00 | EU | Current Account s.a | 27.6 | 25.2 | 25.20 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | Construction Output YoY | -2 | -2.3 | -1.95 | Low | |
| 09:00 | EU | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 25.8 | 24.2 | 24.20 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:00 | EU | New Car Sales YoY | 4.5 | 10.1 | 11.95 | Medium | |