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Data from Eurostat. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
European UnionEurozone Industrial Production YoY fell to -1.2% in May 2026
EurostatMonthlyReleased July 2026
Eurozone Industrial Production YoY fell to -1.2% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 1.6% from April's 0.4% reading. The reading missed the -0.5% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.84%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged -0.9%, vs -0.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.2
Actual
-0.5
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.12 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.1
Actual: -1.2
Error: +1.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (European Union) was reported at -1.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.5% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 15.52%, ranging from -2.1% to 98.1% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1%, down from the prior three at 0.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 35.19%) is lower than the prior year (σ 49.23%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged 39.12%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.12%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC EUR speculative net positions (Jul 31) and ECB Economic Bulletin (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - EU
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About Industrial Production YoY — European Union
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -1.2 Percent, consensus -0.5 Percent. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.3 Percent. Before that (Mar 2026): -2.1 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.68) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - EU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 95.4 | 96 | 96.45 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Services Sentiment | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.25 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.25 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 30.3 | 34 | 38 | 34.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Industrial Sentiment | -6.1 | -7.5 | -7 | -6.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | Selling Price Expectations | 17.7 | 22.1 | 25 | 21.35 | Low |
| 09:00 | EU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.30 | High |
| 09:00 | EU | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 09:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -15.9 | -17.6 | -15.9 | -15.90 | Low |