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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Industrial Profits climbed to -3.3% in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2025
China Industrial Profits climbed to -3.3% in January 2025, up 1.4% from December's -4.7% reading. The print exceeded the -5.0% consensus by 1.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.88%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Profits averaged -4.5%, vs 0.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 63rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-3.3
Actual
-5
Consensus
-4.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.23 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: -5.1
Actual: -3.3
Error: -1.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Copper | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Profits (China) was reported at -3.3% in January 2025. This beat the market consensus of -5% by 1.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of -4.7%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -4.1%, down from the prior three at 0.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Aug 20) and Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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Industrial Profits - CN
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About Industrial Profits — China
DEFINITION
Industrial profits is a financial indicator that measures the profitability of companies in the industrial sector. It takes into account the earnings and expenses of these companies to provide insight into their overall financial performance. This indicator is often used by investors and analysts to assess the health of the industrial sector and make informed decisions about potential investments. A positive trend in industrial profits can indicate a strong and growing economy, while a decline may signal potential challenges for the sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2025): actual -3.3 %, consensus -5 %. Prior reading (Dec 2024): -4.7 %. Before that (Nov 2024): -4.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:15 | CN | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |
| 01:15 | CN | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Medium | |
| 01:15 | CN | Prime Rate | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |