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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Trade (% of GDP) climbed to 37.96 Percent in December 2025
World BankYearlyReleased December 2025
China Trade (% of GDP) climbed to 37.96 Percent in December 2025, up 0.0 Percent from November's 37.96 Percent reading.
Latest Release
37.956388
Actual
—
Consensus
37.956060
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Copper | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade (% of GDP) (China) was reported at 37.96 Percent in December 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 37.96 Percent. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a yearly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 37.55 Percent, up from the prior three at 36.00 Percent. In December readings over the past 3 years, Trade (% of GDP) has averaged 37.55 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Aug 20) and Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Trade (% of GDP) - CN
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About Trade (% of GDP) — China
DEFINITION
China's Trade (% of GDP) for December 2025 registered at 37.956388%, slightly above November's 37.956060%. The marginal increase indicates a stable trade-to-GDP ratio with no significant expansion or contraction. Market participants will monitor upcoming economic data for further clarity on trade momentum. Updated 7/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released annually.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:15 | CN | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |
| 01:15 | CN | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Medium | |
| 01:15 | CN | Prime Rate | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |