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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 Points in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
China S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 Points in July 2026, released August 2026, down 2.5 Points from June's 51.7 Points reading. The reading matched the 51.5 Points consensus.
Latest Release
49.200000
Actual
51.500000
Consensus
51.700000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.8
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 51.7
Actual: 49.2
Error: +2.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Copper | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (China) was reported at 49.20 Points in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 51.50 Points by 2.30 Points. The reading fell from the previous value of 51.70 Points. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5) and Balance of Trade (Aug 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - CN
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About S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — China
DEFINITION
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in major economies around the world. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the global manufacturing industry, serving as a key barometer for investors, businesses, and policymakers. The index is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers, and its timely and accurate data is highly regarded for its ability to forecast economic trends and inform decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 49.2 Points, consensus 51.5 Points. Prior reading (May 2026): 50.1 Points. Before that (Apr 2026): 49.4 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |