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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Non Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.1 in January 2020
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2020
China Non Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.1 in January 2020, up 0.6 from December's 53.5 reading. The reading matched the 53.5 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.6. Over the past 3 months, Non Manufacturing PMI averaged 53.95, vs 53.56 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 45th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
54.1
Actual
53.5
Consensus
53.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.38
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2020
Predicted: 53.68
Actual: 54.1
Error: -0.43
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CNY | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| Copper | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Non Manufacturing PMI (China) was reported at 55.20 in May 2021. The reading rose from the previous value of 54.90. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 55.47, up from the prior three at 53.17.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2021.
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Non Manufacturing PMI - CN
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About Non Manufacturing PMI — China
DEFINITION
Non Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the level of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of industries such as services, construction, and agriculture. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to gauge the overall economic performance and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2021): actual 55.2. Prior reading (May 2021): 55.2. Before that (Apr 2021): 54.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.