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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions fell to 130.3K in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions fell to 130.3K in May 2026, released June 2026, down 25.6K from April's 155.9K reading.
Latest Release
130.300000
Actual
—
Consensus
155.900000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions (United States) was reported at 130 thousand in June 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 156 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 128 thousand, ranging from 40 thousand to 235 thousand across 42 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 149 thousand, down from the prior three at 192 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 58 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 22 thousand). In June readings over the past 3 years, CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions has averaged 185 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions - US
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About CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions — United States
DEFINITION
US CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions fell to 130.300K in June, missing the prior 155.900K reading from May. This decline marks a continued reduction in speculative net positions after May’s 155.9K versus April’s 161.0K, signaling waning bullish sentiment. Market participants will watch upcoming inventory data and Federal Reserve signals for further directional cues. Updated 6/12/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 130.3 K. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 155.9 K. Before that (May 2026): 161 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.