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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions fell to 109.5K in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions fell to 109.5K in September 2026, released October 2026, down 31.6K from August's 141.1K reading.
Latest Release
109.500000
Actual
—
Consensus
141.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions (United States) was reported at 99 thousand in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 110 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 117 thousand, ranging from 40 thousand to 234 thousand across 39 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 129 thousand, down from the prior three at 130 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 49 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 40 thousand).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Hammack Speech (Oct 12) and Budget Balance (Oct 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions - US
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About CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions — United States
DEFINITION
US CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions fell to 99.100000K in October from 109.500000K in September, marking a notable decline in speculative interest. This drop follows a peak of 141.1K in late September, indicating a contraction in net long positions. Market participants will watch for further shifts amid ongoing volatility in crude oil markets. Updated 10/9/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 99.1 K. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 109.5 K. Before that (Sep 2026): 141.1 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bearish AAPL, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 46.3 | 48.1 | 47.6 | 46.95 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 47.3 | 46.3 | 45.9 | 46.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 44.7 | 50.9 | 50.5 | 47.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 98.7 | 98 | 98.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.98 | 3.97 | 3.97 | High | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 334.131 | 335.8 | 335.08 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 334.98 | 336.8 | 336.43 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 334.98 | 336.5 | 336.50 | High | |