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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom GDP 3-Month Avg held to 0.4% in June 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom GDP 3-Month Avg held to 0.4% in June 2026, released September 2026. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 0.1%.
Latest Release
0.400000
Actual
0.300000
Consensus
0.400000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.35
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP 3-Month Avg (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.32%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.7% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.5%, up from the prior three at 0.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.26%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.24%). In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP 3-Month Avg has averaged 0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP 3-Month Avg - UK
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About GDP 3-Month Avg — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Growth GDP 3-Month Avg Growth is a key economic indicator that measures the average growth rate of a country's gross domestic product (GDP) over a three-month period. This metric provides valuable insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as it reflects the pace at which the country's production and consumption of goods and services are expanding. A positive GDP 3-Month Avg Growth indicates a growing economy, while a negative growth rate may signal a slowdown or recession. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | -4.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 8.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 70.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.90 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 5.00 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |