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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom GDP 3-Month Avg fell to 0.4% in May 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom GDP 3-Month Avg fell to 0.4% in May 2026, released August 2026, down 0.2% from April's 0.6% reading. The reading matched the 0.4% consensus.
Latest Release
0.400000
Actual
0.400000
Consensus
0.600000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.45
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP 3-Month Avg (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.4% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.4% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.3%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.7% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.6%, up from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.26%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.24%). In August readings over the past 3 years, GDP 3-Month Avg has averaged 0.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Aug 18) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Aug 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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GDP 3-Month Avg - UK
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About GDP 3-Month Avg — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Growth GDP 3-Month Avg Growth is a key economic indicator that measures the average growth rate of a country's gross domestic product (GDP) over a three-month period. This metric provides valuable insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as it reflects the pace at which the country's production and consumption of goods and services are expanding. A positive GDP 3-Month Avg Growth indicates a growing economy, while a negative growth rate may signal a slowdown or recession. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -4 | 5 | -32.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 147 | 200 | 220.50 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.3 | 4 | 4.15 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.85 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 6.7 | 5.2 | 4.80 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | Labour Productivity QoQ | 0.9 | -0.5 | 0.10 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.3 | 3.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.80 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 7.3 | 7 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.95 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -2 | -0.5 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium | |