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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PCE Price Index MoM climbed to 0.2% in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased August 2026
US PCE Price Index MoM climbed to 0.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.3% from June's -0.1% reading. The print exceeded the 0.1% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.31%. Over the past 3 months, PCE Price Index MoM averaged 0.15%, vs 0.45% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 33rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.1
Consensus
-0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.02 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.07
Actual: 0.2
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PCE Price Index MoM (United States) was reported at 0.2% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.28%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.09%). In August readings over the past 3 years, PCE Price Index MoM has averaged 0.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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PCE Price Index MoM - US
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About PCE Price Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The PCE Price Index MoM (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services purchased by individuals and households in a given month. It is used by policymakers and analysts to track inflation and consumer spending patterns, providing valuable insights into the health of the economy. A higher PCE Price Index MoM indicates rising prices and potential inflationary pressures, while a lower index may signal a decrease in consumer spending and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |