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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PCE Price Index MoM fell to -0.1% in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased July 2026
US PCE Price Index MoM fell to -0.1% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.6% from May's 0.5% reading. The reading matched the -0.1% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.32%. Over the past 3 months, PCE Price Index MoM averaged 0.4%, vs 0.45% in the prior 3-month window. PCE Price Index MoM is now the lowest in 39 months.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.15
Actual: -0.1
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.86 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PCE Price Index MoM (United States) was reported at -0.1% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of -0.1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.28%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.23%, down from the prior three at 0.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.09%). In July readings over the past 3 years, PCE Price Index MoM has averaged 0.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Aug 18) and Import Prices MoM (Aug 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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PCE Price Index MoM - US
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About PCE Price Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The PCE Price Index MoM (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services purchased by individuals and households in a given month. It is used by policymakers and analysts to track inflation and consumer spending patterns, providing valuable insights into the health of the economy. A higher PCE Price Index MoM indicates rising prices and potential inflationary pressures, while a lower index may signal a decrease in consumer spending and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.86) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15.6 | 11 | 15.80 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 231.2 | 151.4 | 162.05 | Medium |
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 76.3 | 76.30 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -5.4 | 0.2 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -0.3 | 1.4 | 3.25 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1808 | 1804.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 41.4 | 25 | 15.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 212 | 211.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 199 | 200 | 199.75 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |