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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PCE Price Index MoM fell to 0.4% in April 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased May 2026
US PCE Price Index MoM fell to 0.4% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.3% from March's 0.7% reading. The reading missed the 0.5% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.31%. Over the past 3 months, PCE Price Index MoM averaged 0.47%, vs 0.35% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PCE Price Index MoM (United States) was reported at 0.4% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.29%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.37%, up from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.09%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.1%). In May readings over the past 3 years, PCE Price Index MoM has averaged 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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PCE Price Index MoM - US
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About PCE Price Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The PCE Price Index MoM (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services purchased by individuals and households in a given month. It is used by policymakers and analysts to track inflation and consumer spending patterns, providing valuable insights into the health of the economy. A higher PCE Price Index MoM indicates rising prices and potential inflationary pressures, while a lower index may signal a decrease in consumer spending and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.