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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PCE Price Index MoM fell to -0.1% in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased July 2026
US PCE Price Index MoM fell to -0.1% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.6% from May's 0.5% reading. The reading matched the -0.1% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.32%. Over the past 3 months, PCE Price Index MoM averaged 0.4%, vs 0.45% in the prior 3-month window. PCE Price Index MoM is now the lowest in 39 months.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.45
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.78 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PCE Price Index MoM (United States) was reported at -0.1% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of -0.1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.33%, ranging from 0.2% to 0.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.37%, up from the prior three at 0.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.07%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.08%). In June readings over the past 3 years, PCE Price Index MoM has averaged 0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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PCE Price Index MoM - US
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About PCE Price Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The PCE Price Index MoM (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services purchased by individuals and households in a given month. It is used by policymakers and analysts to track inflation and consumer spending patterns, providing valuable insights into the health of the economy. A higher PCE Price Index MoM indicates rising prices and potential inflationary pressures, while a lower index may signal a decrease in consumer spending and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.78) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |