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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Goods Trade Balance Non-EU climbed to -13.05B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance Non-EU climbed to -13.05B in May 2026, released June 2026, up 2.14B from April's -15.2B reading. The reading missed the -9.8B consensus by 3.25B.
Latest Release
-13.050000
Actual
-9.800000
Consensus
-15.195000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.57 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -12.9
Actual: -13.05
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (United Kingdom) was reported at -13.05 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -9.80 billion by 3.25 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -15.20 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -10.05 billion, ranging from -15.20 billion to -3.46 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -10.57 billion, up from the prior three at -10.90 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.10 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.26 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Goods Trade Balance Non-EU has averaged -9.66 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.57 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Jul 21) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jul 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Goods Trade Balance Non-EU - UK
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About Goods Trade Balance Non-EU — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Goods Trade Balance Non-EU is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the value of goods exported and imported by a country, excluding trade with the European Union. It provides insight into a country's trade performance and can indicate its level of competitiveness in the global market. A positive balance indicates that a country is exporting more goods than it is importing, while a negative balance suggests the opposite. This indicator is often used by economists and policymakers to assess a country's trade policies and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -13.05 B, consensus -9.8 B. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -15.2 B. Before that (Feb 2026): -7.1 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 31.2 | -5 | -2.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -23.3 | -12.5 | -12.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | 2 | 20 | 7.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 8.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 4 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |