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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Goods Trade Balance Non-EU fell to -10.45B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance Non-EU fell to -10.45B in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.87B from June's -9.58B reading. The reading missed the -9.3B consensus by 1.15B.
Latest Release
-10.450000
Actual
-9.300000
Consensus
-9.580000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.53 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -9.5
Actual: -10.45
Error: +0.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (United Kingdom) was reported at -10.45 billion in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -9.30 billion by 1.15 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -9.58 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -9.87 billion, ranging from -15.20 billion to -3.46 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -10.21 billion, down from the prior three at -9.88 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.34 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.55 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Goods Trade Balance Non-EU has averaged -9.56 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.53 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Goods Trade Balance Non-EU - UK
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About Goods Trade Balance Non-EU — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Goods Trade Balance Non-EU is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the value of goods exported and imported by a country, excluding trade with the European Union. It provides insight into a country's trade performance and can indicate its level of competitiveness in the global market. A positive balance indicates that a country is exporting more goods than it is importing, while a negative balance suggests the opposite. This indicator is often used by economists and policymakers to assess a country's trade policies and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -10.45 B, consensus -9.3 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -7.14 B. Before that (Apr 2026): -13.05 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |