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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Goods Trade Balance Non-EU climbed to -7.14B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance Non-EU climbed to -7.14B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 5.07B from May's -12.21B reading. The print exceeded the -9.6B consensus by 2.46B.
Latest Release
-7.140000
Actual
-9.600000
Consensus
-12.210000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.57 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -11.96
Actual: -7.14
Error: -4.82
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (United Kingdom) was reported at -7.14 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -9.60 billion by 2.46 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -12.21 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -9.78 billion, ranging from -15.20 billion to -3.46 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -11.80 billion, down from the prior three at -8.64 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.07 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.26 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Goods Trade Balance Non-EU has averaged -7.77 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.57 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoE Consumer Credit (Jul 29) and Mortgage Approvals (Jul 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Goods Trade Balance Non-EU - UK
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About Goods Trade Balance Non-EU — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Goods Trade Balance Non-EU is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the value of goods exported and imported by a country, excluding trade with the European Union. It provides insight into a country's trade performance and can indicate its level of competitiveness in the global market. A positive balance indicates that a country is exporting more goods than it is importing, while a negative balance suggests the opposite. This indicator is often used by economists and policymakers to assess a country's trade policies and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -7.14 B, consensus -9.6 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -13.05 B. Before that (Mar 2026): -15.2 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, July 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | UK | CBI Distributive Trades | -26 | -54 | -45 | -45.25 | Medium |
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.50 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.662 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Medium | |
| 08:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 56.21 | 56.5 | 56.50 | Medium | |
| 08:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 2.89 | 4.1 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 08:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 23:01 | UK | Car Production YoY | 3.2 | -0.5 | -3.10 | Low | |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 29 | 29 | 29.00 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 79 | 79 | 79.00 | Medium | |