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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Consumer Spending MoM held to -0.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
France Consumer Spending MoM held to -0.5% in September 2026, released October 2026. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.02%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Spending MoM averaged 0.0%, vs 0.13% in the prior 3-month window. Consumer Spending MoM is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-0.5
Actual
0.1
Consensus
-0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.34 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.08
Actual: -0.5
Error: +0.57
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Spending MoM (France) was reported at -0.5% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.6%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.14%, ranging from -1.4% to 0.5% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.6%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.47%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.34%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Nov 5) and Balance of Trade (Nov 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Consumer Spending MoM - FR
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About Consumer Spending MoM — France
DEFINITION
Consumer Spending MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the amount of money spent by individuals and households on goods and services in a given month. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and consumer confidence, as well as potential trends in consumer behavior. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, businesses, and policymakers as it can impact various sectors of the economy, such as retail sales, manufacturing, and employment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.5 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -0.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.00 | High |
| 06:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate YoY | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.10 | High |
| 06:30 | FR | Household Consumption MoM | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.20 | Low |
| 06:30 | FR | Consumer Spending MoM | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.20 | Medium |
| 07:45 | FR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.7 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.33 | Medium |
| 07:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.73 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.8 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.73 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low |
| 07:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.33 | High |