Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly 10-Year BTP Auction climbed to 4.58% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Italy 10-Year BTP Auction climbed to 4.58% in September 2026, up 0.48% from August's 4.1% reading.
Latest Release
4.580000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
10-Year BTP Auction (Italy) was reported at 4.58% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.8%, ranging from 3.31% to 4.58% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.23%, up from the prior three at 3.72%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.4%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.36%). In September readings over the past 3 years, 10-Year BTP Auction has averaged 3.88%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Oct 16) and Unemployment Rate (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
10-Year BTP Auction - IT
Loading chart data...
About 10-Year BTP Auction — Italy
DEFINITION
The 10-Year BTP Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand and interest for Italian government bonds with a maturity of 10 years. This auction is conducted by the Italian Treasury and provides insight into the country's borrowing costs and overall market sentiment towards its debt. It is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can impact the country's borrowing ability and economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.58 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.53) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 09:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 09:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.35 | Low | |
| 09:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.45 | Low | |