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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly BTP Auction climbed to 4.61% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Italy BTP Auction climbed to 4.61% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.65% from July's 3.96% reading.
Latest Release
4.610000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.960000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BTP Auction (Italy) was reported at 4.61% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.96%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.33%, ranging from 1.17% to 4.61% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.03%, up from the prior three at 1.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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BTP Auction - IT
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About BTP Auction — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's BTP Auction yield surged to 4.610000% in September, up sharply from August's 3.960000%, signaling increased borrowing costs. This marks a significant rise in yields, reflecting tighter market conditions compared to the prior month. Investors will closely watch upcoming debt sales and ECB policy for further direction. Updated 9/12/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.61 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.78 %. Before that (Dec 2025): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.62) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |