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Data from European Central Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Italy HICP All Items YoY held to 1.2 Percent in November 2025
European Central BankMonthlyReleased December 2025
Italy Italy HICP All Items YoY held to 1.2 Percent in November 2025, released December 2025.
Latest Release
1.200000
Actual
—
Consensus
1.200000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Italy HICP All Items YoY (Italy) was reported at 1.20 Percent in November 2025. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.45 Percent, ranging from 1.10 Percent to 1.80 Percent across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.20 Percent, down from the prior three at 1.70 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.26 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.39 Percent). In December readings over the past 3 years, Italy HICP All Items YoY has averaged 1.03 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Italy HICP All Items YoY - IT
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About Italy HICP All Items YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy HICP All Items YoY rose to 1.2% in December 2025 from November’s 1.1%, halting a three-month decline and signaling inflation stabilization below the ECB’s 2% target. The increase from 1.1% to 1.2% marks the first uptick since September, with energy and food prices driving the modest rebound. Markets reacted calmly, reflecting confidence in Italy’s contained price pressures as 2025 closes. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2025): actual 1.2 Percent. Prior reading (Nov 2025): 1.1 Percent. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.3 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR, r=0.69) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.