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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly CPI MoM fell to 0.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Italy CPI MoM fell to 0.4% in May 2026, down 0.7% from April's 1.1% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.1% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. CPI MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.1
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.05
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Bullish EU | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (Italy) was reported at 0.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish EU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CPI MoM - IT
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About CPI MoM — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's CPI MoM rose 0.400000% in May, beating the 0.100000% estimate. This marks a sharp slowdown from April's 1.100000% increase, indicating easing inflation pressures. Markets will watch upcoming data for confirmation of this trend amid steady ECB policy. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.