Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly New Car Sales YoY climbed to 9.9% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Italy New Car Sales YoY climbed to 9.9% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 6.7% from August's 3.2% reading. The print exceeded the 2.0% consensus by 7.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 7.34%. Over the past 3 months, New Car Sales YoY averaged 5.67%, vs 9.6% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
9.9
Actual
2
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.08 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.4
Actual: 9.9
Error: -8.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.91 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Car Sales YoY (Italy) was reported at 9.9% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2% by 7.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.63%, ranging from 3.2% to 9.9% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.67%, down from the prior three at 7.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Oct 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
New Car Sales YoY - IT
Loading chart data...
About New Car Sales YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
New Car Sales YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of new cars sold by a particular company or industry. This metric is used to assess the overall health and growth of the automotive market, as well as the performance of individual companies within the industry. A positive YoY change indicates an increase in new car sales, while a negative change suggests a decline. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it provides valuable insights into consumer spending and economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 9.9 %, consensus 2 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 9.9 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.91) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 09:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.35 | Low | |
| 09:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.45 | Low | |
| 09:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |