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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly Trade (% of GDP) fell to 62.52 Percent in December 2025
World BankYearlyReleased December 2025
Italy Trade (% of GDP) fell to 62.52 Percent in December 2025, down 0.07 Percent from November's 62.59 Percent reading.
Latest Release
62.523226
Actual
—
Consensus
62.592614
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade (% of GDP) (Italy) was reported at 62.52 Percent in December 2025. The reading fell from the previous value of 62.59 Percent. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a yearly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 63.41 Percent, up from the prior three at 62.09 Percent. In December readings over the past 3 years, Trade (% of GDP) has averaged 63.41 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish EU).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Trade (% of GDP) - IT
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About Trade (% of GDP) — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's Trade (% of GDP) registered at 62.523226% for 2025, slightly below 2024's 62.592614%. The marginal decline from 62.592614% in 2024 to 62.523226% in 2025 indicates a stable trade-to-GDP ratio with minimal contraction. Market focus remains on upcoming economic data to assess Italy's trade momentum. Updated 7/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released annually.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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