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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly CPI YoY fell to 2.9% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Italy CPI YoY fell to 2.9% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from June's 3.0% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.52%. Over the past 3 months, CPI YoY averaged 2.98%, vs 1.83% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
2.9
Actual
2.8
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.78
Actual: 2.9
Error: -0.12
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.80 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Italy) was reported at 3.3% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.69%, ranging from 1.1% to 3.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3%, down from the prior three at 3.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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CPI YoY - IT
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About CPI YoY — Italy
DEFINITION
Italy's CPI YoY rose to 3.3% in August, up from July's 2.9%, marking a clear acceleration in inflation. This increase signals a stronger inflationary trend compared to the previous month. Market participants will watch upcoming ECB communications closely for potential policy adjustments. Updated 9/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.80) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |