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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly 5-Year BTP Auction fell to 4.02% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Italy 5-Year BTP Auction fell to 4.02% in October 2026, down 0.06% from September's 4.08% reading.
Latest Release
4.020000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.080000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
5-Year BTP Auction (Italy) was reported at 4.02% in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.08%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.21%, ranging from 2.62% to 4.08% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.85%, up from the prior three at 3.34%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.49%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.11%). In October readings over the past 3 years, 5-Year BTP Auction has averaged 3.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Services PMI (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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5-Year BTP Auction - IT
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About 5-Year BTP Auction — Italy
DEFINITION
The 5-Year BTP Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for Italian government bonds with a maturity of 5 years. It is used as a gauge of investor confidence in the Italian economy and its ability to repay its debt. The auction is conducted by the Italian Treasury and the results provide insight into the current market sentiment towards Italian bonds. This indicator is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can impact the overall stability of the Italian financial market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 4.02 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 4.08 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 3.44 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.66) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.25 | High |
| 11:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 90.3 | 91.2 | 90.9 | 91.18 | Medium |
| 11:00 | IT | Business Confidence | 91.9 | 91.9 | 92 | 92.15 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.85 | High |
| 09:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.80 | High |
| 10:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.43 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.68 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.88 | Low |