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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly 5-Year BTP Auction climbed to 3.39% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Italy 5-Year BTP Auction climbed to 3.39% in July 2026, up 0.36% from June's 3.03% reading.
Latest Release
3.390000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.030000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
5-Year BTP Auction (Italy) was reported at 3.39% in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.03%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.95%, ranging from 2.62% to 3.48% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.34%, up from the prior three at 2.74%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.28%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.14%). In July readings over the past 3 years, 5-Year BTP Auction has averaged 3.15%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jul 31) and Consumer Confidence (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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5-Year BTP Auction - IT
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About 5-Year BTP Auction — Italy
DEFINITION
The 5-Year BTP Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for Italian government bonds with a maturity of 5 years. It is used as a gauge of investor confidence in the Italian economy and its ability to repay its debt. The auction is conducted by the Italian Treasury and the results provide insight into the current market sentiment towards Italian bonds. This indicator is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can impact the overall stability of the Italian financial market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.39 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.16 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.32 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| 08:00 | IT | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 09:00 | IT | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.60 | Low |
| 10:00 | IT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.20 | Low |