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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly 5-Year BTP Auction fell to 3.16% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Italy 5-Year BTP Auction fell to 3.16% in May 2026, down 0.16% from April's 3.32% reading.
Latest Release
3.160000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.320000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
5-Year BTP Auction (Italy) was reported at 3.16% in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.32%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.87%, ranging from 2.62% to 3.48% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.09%, up from the prior three at 2.78%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.24%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.24%). In May readings over the past 3 years, 5-Year BTP Auction has averaged 3.18%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 26) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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5-Year BTP Auction - IT
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About 5-Year BTP Auction — Italy
DEFINITION
The 5-Year BTP Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for Italian government bonds with a maturity of 5 years. It is used as a gauge of investor confidence in the Italian economy and its ability to repay its debt. The auction is conducted by the Italian Treasury and the results provide insight into the current market sentiment towards Italian bonds. This indicator is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can impact the overall stability of the Italian financial market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.16 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.32 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.48 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.