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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ItalyItaly 5-Year BTP Auction climbed to 3.44% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Italy 5-Year BTP Auction climbed to 3.44% in August 2026, up 0.05% from July's 3.39% reading.
Latest Release
3.440000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.390000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
5-Year BTP Auction (Italy) was reported at 3.44% in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.39%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.01%, ranging from 2.62% to 3.48% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.33%, up from the prior three at 2.95%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.31%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.12%). In August readings over the past 3 years, 5-Year BTP Auction has averaged 3.11%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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5-Year BTP Auction - IT
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About 5-Year BTP Auction — Italy
DEFINITION
The 5-Year BTP Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for Italian government bonds with a maturity of 5 years. It is used as a gauge of investor confidence in the Italian economy and its ability to repay its debt. The auction is conducted by the Italian Treasury and the results provide insight into the current market sentiment towards Italian bonds. This indicator is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can impact the overall stability of the Italian financial market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.44 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3.39 %. Before that (May 2026): 3.16 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.62) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IT Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | IT | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.77 | 4.32 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.18 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low |
| 08:00 | IT | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |