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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
FranceFrance Exports fell to 53.6B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
France Exports fell to 53.6B in May 2026, released July 2026, down 1.1B from April's 54.7B reading. The reading matched the 55.1B consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 4.7B. Over the past 3 months, Exports averaged 53.55B, vs 52.68B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
53.6
Actual
55.1
Consensus
54.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 55.95
Actual: 53.6
Error: +2.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAC 40 | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports (France) was reported at 53.60 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 55.10 billion by 1.50 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 54.70 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.57 billion, ranging from 50.60 billion to 54.60 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 53.87 billion, up from the prior three at 52.33 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.14 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.30 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Exports has averaged 50.90 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.00 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 5) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Exports - FR
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About Exports — France
DEFINITION
Exports refer to the goods and services that a country produces and sells to other countries. This financial indicator is used to measure the strength of a country's economy and its international trade relationships. A high level of exports can indicate a healthy economy and a competitive market, while a decrease in exports may signal a decline in economic activity. This information is important for businesses, investors, and policymakers to make informed decisions about trade and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 53.6 B, consensus 55.1 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 54.6 B. Before that (Mar 2026): 52.5 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.60) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - FR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:30 | FR | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | Consumer Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.75 | High |
| 05:30 | FR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 05:30 | FR | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 05:30 | FR | Household Consumption MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.95 | High |
| 06:45 | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.50 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | CPI MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:45 | FR | HICP YoY | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 06:45 | FR | HICP MoM | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Medium |