Mexico’s retail sales MoM for November 2025 registered 0.00%, a notable slowdown from October’s 0.50% gain and below the 0.30% forecast. This flat reading marks a pause after a volatile half-year that included a -1.00% drop in June and a rebound to 0.60% in October. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights a consumer sector grappling with mixed signals from monetary tightening, fiscal discipline, and external headwinds.

Drivers this month

• Weakening discretionary spending amid rising borrowing costs
• Stable food and essentials offsetting declines in non-essential retail
• Supply chain normalization reducing inventory-driven sales spikes

Policy pulse

The flat retail sales figure aligns with Banco de México’s recent monetary tightening cycle aimed at curbing inflation, which has eased to 3.80% YoY but remains above the 3% target. Higher interest rates have cooled consumer credit growth, dampening retail momentum.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MXN/USD currency pair showed minimal movement, trading near 18.75 post-release, reflecting market expectations of subdued consumer demand. Short-term yields on Mexican government bonds edged up 3 basis points, signaling cautious investor sentiment.

Retail sales are a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting household consumption, which accounts for roughly 60% of Mexico’s GDP. The November 0.00% MoM reading contrasts with the 12-month average growth of 0.25%, underscoring recent volatility. Inflation, unemployment, and wage growth interplay critically with retail trends.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

Banco de México has raised its benchmark rate by 125 basis points since mid-2025, reaching 11.00%. This tightening aims to anchor inflation expectations but raises borrowing costs, directly impacting consumer spending power. Credit growth slowed to 4.20% YoY in October from 5.50% earlier in the year.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal discipline remains tight with a 2025 budget deficit target of 2.50% of GDP. Limited fiscal stimulus constrains demand-side support, placing more weight on private consumption resilience. Public investment projects continue but have yet to significantly boost retail activity.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global uncertainties, including US economic slowdown risks and trade tensions, weigh on export-driven sectors and consumer confidence. The recent volatility in oil prices also affects disposable incomes, given Mexico’s status as an oil exporter.

Seasonal adjustments and inventory cycles also contributed to the flat reading. The normalization of supply chains after pandemic disruptions has reduced the need for stockpiling, which inflated sales earlier in the year.

Drivers this month

• Essential goods stable, non-essential discretionary spending weak
• Reduced inventory accumulation compared to mid-2025
• Higher interest rates limiting consumer credit uptake

Policy pulse

The retail sales figure supports Banco de México’s stance that monetary policy is effectively slowing demand to tame inflation. The central bank’s inflation target of 3% remains a medium-term goal, with current inflation at 3.80% YoY.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Mexican government bond yields rose modestly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 3 basis points. The MXN currency remained stable, reflecting balanced market expectations amid mixed data.

Looking ahead, Mexico’s retail sales trajectory depends on several factors. The base case anticipates modest growth of 0.20% MoM in December 2025 as inflation pressures ease and consumer confidence stabilizes. However, risks remain on both sides.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Inflation falls below 3.50%, prompting monetary easing
• Fiscal stimulus measures boost disposable income
• Improved external demand from US and global markets
• Retail sales rebound to 0.50%+ MoM growth

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Inflation gradually declines toward target
• Monetary policy remains restrictive but stable
• Retail sales grow modestly at 0.10–0.30% MoM
• Consumer credit growth remains subdued

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Geopolitical shocks or US slowdown reduce exports
• Inflation remains sticky above 4%
• Further monetary tightening depresses consumption
• Retail sales contract or stagnate below 0% MoM

Structural trends such as digital commerce expansion and demographic shifts will continue to reshape retail patterns over the long run. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support to sustain consumer demand.

Mexico’s November 2025 retail sales MoM reading of 0.00% signals a pause in consumer spending growth amid tightening financial conditions and external uncertainties. While inflation is easing, the absence of fiscal stimulus and geopolitical risks cloud the outlook. The data underscores the delicate balancing act facing Banco de México and the government as they navigate inflation control without stifling growth.

Investors and policymakers should monitor upcoming inflation prints, credit conditions, and external developments closely. The retail sector’s performance will remain a key barometer of Mexico’s economic health in the near term.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM

Retail sales data in Mexico often influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to domestic consumption trends. The following symbols historically track or react to changes in Mexico’s retail sales:

• MXNUSD – The Mexican peso’s exchange rate versus the US dollar closely reflects retail-driven economic sentiment.
• BIMBOA.MX – A leading Mexican consumer goods stock, sensitive to retail demand fluctuations.
• WALMEX.MX – Walmart de México, a major retail player, directly impacted by consumer spending trends.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price sometimes inversely correlates with economic uncertainty affecting retail confidence.
• USDMXN – The inverse of MXNUSD, reflecting peso weakness or strength tied to retail data.

Insight: Retail Sales vs. WALMEX.MX Since 2020

Since 2020, WALMEX.MX stock price has shown a strong positive correlation (~0.68) with Mexico’s retail sales MoM data. Periods of retail sales growth above 0.30% MoM typically coincide with WALMEX.MX rallies, reflecting consumer spending strength. Conversely, retail contractions align with stock pullbacks. This relationship underscores WALMEX.MX as a bellwether for Mexico’s retail sector health.

FAQs

What does the November 2025 Retail Sales MoM figure indicate for Mexico’s economy?

The flat 0.00% reading suggests cautious consumer spending amid monetary tightening and external risks, signaling a pause in economic momentum.

How does retail sales data influence Banco de México’s policy decisions?

Retail sales reflect consumer demand and inflation pressures, guiding the central bank’s interest rate adjustments to balance growth and price stability.

Why is monitoring retail sales important for investors?

Retail sales data impacts currency, bond yields, and consumer stocks, providing insights into economic health and market sentiment.

Final Takeaway: Mexico’s November 2025 retail sales stagnation highlights the balancing act between inflation control and growth support. Near-term risks remain, but structural consumer trends offer long-run growth potential.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/25/25