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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Retail Sales MoM climbed to -0.2% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Mexico Retail Sales MoM climbed to -0.2% in June 2026, released August 2026, up 0.4% from May's -0.6% reading. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.25%. The reading is in the 21st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
0.1
Consensus
-0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.47 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Mexico) was reported at -0.2% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.35%, ranging from -0.2% to 1% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.23%, down from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.39%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.66%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged -0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.48%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24) and Balance of Trade (Sep 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - MX
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About Retail Sales MoM — Mexico
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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