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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7 in December 2013
FMPMonthlyReleased December 2013
Mexico Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7 in December 2013, down 2.5 from November's 91.2 reading. The reading matched the 92.5 consensus. Consumer Confidence Index has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence Index averaged 92.65, vs 96.23 in the prior 3-month window. Consumer Confidence Index is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
88.7
Actual
92.5
Consensus
91.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.7
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Dec 2013
Predicted: 91.95
Actual: 88.7
Error: +3.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish MXN | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence Index (Mexico) was reported at 88.70 in December 2013. This missed the market consensus of 92.50 by 3.80. The reading fell from the previous value of 91.20. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 91.33, down from the prior three at 96.23.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN). A secondary relationship exists with WTI Crude, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.70.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2013.
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Consumer Confidence Index - MX
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About Consumer Confidence Index — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2013): actual 88.7, consensus 92.5. Prior reading (Nov 2013): 91.2. Before that (Oct 2013): 94.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish MXN, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.