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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM climbed to 0.88% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM climbed to 0.88% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.12% from August's -0.24% reading.
Latest Release
0.880000
Actual
—
Consensus
-0.240000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM (Brazil) was reported at 0.88% in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.24%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.31%, ranging from -0.24% to 0.88% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, down from the prior three at 0.49%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.31%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.44%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM - BR
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About Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM rose sharply to 0.880000% in October, reversing September's -0.240000% decline. October's inflation surge marks a significant rebound from the prior month’s contraction. The data may influence market expectations and central bank policy ahead of upcoming economic releases. Updated 10/9/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.88 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -0.24 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.17 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |