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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM fell to -0.24% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Brazil Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM fell to -0.24% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.41% from July's 0.17% reading.
Latest Release
-0.240000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.170000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM (Brazil) was reported at -0.24% in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.17%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.27%, ranging from -0.24% to 0.63% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.05%, down from the prior three at 0.52%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM - BR
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About Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA MoM fell by -0.240000% in September, reversing August's 0.170000% rise. This marks a clear contraction in monthly inflation compared to the prior month. Market participants will watch for central bank responses amid this unexpected deflationary shift. Updated 9/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.24 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.17 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.23 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |