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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Federal Tax Revenues climbed to 261.3B in December 2024
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2025
Brazil Federal Tax Revenues climbed to 261.3B in December 2024, released January 2025, up 52.1B from November's 209.2B reading. The reading matched the 255.1B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 221.05B. Over the past 3 months, Federal Tax Revenues averaged 239.47B, vs 211.16B in the prior 3-month window. Federal Tax Revenues is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
261.3
Actual
255.1
Consensus
209.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±16.63 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: 277.06
Actual: 261.3
Error: +15.76
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish BRL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Federal Tax Revenues (Brazil) was reported at 261.30 billion in January 2025. This beat the market consensus of 255.10 billion by 6.20 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 209.20 billion.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 239.47 billion, up from the prior three at 211.94 billion. In January readings over the past 3 years, Federal Tax Revenues has averaged 233.91 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 16.63 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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Federal Tax Revenues - BR
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About Federal Tax Revenues — Brazil
DEFINITION
Federal Tax Revenues refer to the total amount of money collected by the government through various taxes, such as income tax, corporate tax, and excise tax. This financial indicator is a key measure of the government's ability to generate revenue and fund its operations, programs, and services. It is also an important factor in determining the overall health of the economy, as higher tax revenues can indicate a strong economy with higher levels of consumer spending and business activity. Federal Tax Revenues are closely monitored by policymakers and economists to assess the effectiveness of tax policies and to make informed decisions about government spending and budget deficits.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2024): actual 261.3 B, consensus 255.1 B. Prior reading (Dec 2024): 261.3 B. Before that (Nov 2024): 209.2 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.