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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil CPI YoY climbed to 4.64% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Brazil CPI YoY climbed to 4.64% in May 2026, up 0.27% from April's 4.37% reading. The reading matched expectations. CPI YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months.
Latest Release
4.64
Actual
4.55
Consensus
4.37
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 4.59
Actual: 4.64
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish BRL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Brazil) was reported at 4.64% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.55% by 0.09%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.37%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Jun 12) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CPI YoY - BR
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About CPI YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's CPI YoY rose to 4.64% in May, beating the 4.55% estimate and accelerating from April's 4.37%. The inflation rate shows a clear upward trend, increasing from March's 3.9% through April's 4.37% to May's 4.64%. Market participants will closely watch upcoming data for signs of sustained inflationary pressure amid central bank policy considerations. Updated 5/27/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.64 %, consensus 4.55 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.39 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.37 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.