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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil CPI YoY climbed to 4.72% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Brazil CPI YoY climbed to 4.72% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.33% from April's 4.39% reading. The reading matched expectations. CPI YoY has now risen for 6 consecutive months.
Latest Release
4.72
Actual
4.66
Consensus
4.39
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 4.7
Actual: 4.72
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish BRL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Brazil) was reported at 4.72% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.66% by 0.06%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.39%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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CPI YoY - BR
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About CPI YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's CPI YoY rose to 4.720% in May, beating the 4.660% estimate. This marks an increase from April's 4.390%, indicating accelerating inflation. The persistent rise pressures the central bank to maintain a hawkish stance amid tightening market expectations. Updated 6/12/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.72 %, consensus 4.66 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.64 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.39 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.