Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil CPI YoY fell to 4.52% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil CPI YoY fell to 4.52% in July 2026, down 0.28% from June's 4.8% reading. The reading matched expectations. CPI YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, CPI YoY averaged 4.64%, vs 4.14% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
4.52
Actual
4.67
Consensus
4.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.67
Actual: 4.52
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Brazil) was reported at 4.52% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.67% by 0.15%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.52%, ranging from 3.9% to 4.8% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.65%, up from the prior three at 4.58%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
CPI YoY - BR
Loading chart data...
About CPI YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's CPI YoY for July came in at 4.52%, missing the 4.67% estimate and down from June's 4.80%. This marks a continued deceleration in inflation, reflecting easing price pressures compared to the previous month. Market focus now shifts to upcoming central bank decisions amid this downward trend. Updated 7/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.52 %, consensus 4.67 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 4.64 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 4.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.73) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -0.5 | -1.09 | -1.13 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Medium |