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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil CPI YoY fell to 4.24% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil CPI YoY fell to 4.24% in August 2026, down 0.28% from July's 4.52% reading. The reading matched expectations. CPI YoY has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, CPI YoY averaged 4.62%, vs 4.29% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
4.24
Actual
4.34
Consensus
4.52
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 4.32
Actual: 4.24
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Brazil) was reported at 4.24% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.34% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.52%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.48%, ranging from 3.9% to 4.8% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.4%, down from the prior three at 4.72%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI YoY - BR
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About CPI YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's CPI YoY for August came in at 4.24%, missing the 4.34% estimate and down from July's 4.52%. This marks a continued deceleration in inflation, reflecting easing price pressures compared to the previous month. Market focus now shifts to upcoming central bank decisions amid this downward trend. Updated 8/26/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.24 %, consensus 4.34 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.44 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 4.52 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |