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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IPCA mid-month CPI MoM fell to 0.32% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI MoM fell to 0.32% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.38% from August's 0.7% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.43% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
0.320000
Actual
0.430000
Consensus
0.700000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.42
Actual: 0.32
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IPCA mid-month CPI MoM (Brazil) was reported at 0.32% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.43% by 0.11%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.33%, ranging from -0.4% to 0.84% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.21%, down from the prior three at 0.36%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.32%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.32%). In October readings over the past 3 years, IPCA mid-month CPI MoM has averaged 0.35%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Oct 30) and Unemployment Rate (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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IPCA mid-month CPI MoM - BR
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About IPCA mid-month CPI MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
IPCA mid-month CPI MoM is a key financial indicator that measures the change in consumer prices on a monthly basis in Brazil. It is based on the mid-month consumer price index (IPCA) and provides valuable insights into the country's inflation rate. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it reflects the purchasing power of consumers and can impact the overall economic stability of the country. A positive change in IPCA mid-month CPI MoM indicates an increase in consumer prices, while a negative change suggests a decrease.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 0.32 %, consensus 0.43 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Aug 2026): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.52) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |