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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IPCA mid-month CPI MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.46% from June's 0.06% reading. The print came in cooler than the -0.3% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
-0.400000
Actual
-0.300000
Consensus
0.060000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.34
Actual: -0.4
Error: +0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IPCA mid-month CPI MoM (Brazil) was reported at -0.4% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.06%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.3%, ranging from -0.4% to 0.84% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.02%, down from the prior three at 0.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.31%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In August readings over the past 3 years, IPCA mid-month CPI MoM has averaged -0.12%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.07%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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IPCA mid-month CPI MoM - BR
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About IPCA mid-month CPI MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
IPCA mid-month CPI MoM is a key financial indicator that measures the change in consumer prices on a monthly basis in Brazil. It is based on the mid-month consumer price index (IPCA) and provides valuable insights into the country's inflation rate. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it reflects the purchasing power of consumers and can impact the overall economic stability of the country. A positive change in IPCA mid-month CPI MoM indicates an increase in consumer prices, while a negative change suggests a decrease.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus -0.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.06 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.41 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.52) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |