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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM climbed to 1.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM climbed to 1.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.3% from August's 1.5% reading. The print exceeded the 1.4% consensus by 0.4%.
Latest Release
1.800000
Actual
1.400000
Consensus
1.500000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.5 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.3
Actual: 1.8
Error: -0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM (Brazil) was reported at 1.8% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.4% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.33%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.8% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.93%, up from the prior three at 0.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.77%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.75%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM - BR
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About IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM rose 1.800% in October, beating the 1.400% estimate. This marks an increase from September's 1.500%, signaling accelerating inflation pressures. Market participants will watch for central bank responses amid this upward trend. Updated 10/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 1.8 %, consensus 1.4 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 1.5 %. Before that (Aug 2026): -0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa, r=0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |