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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM fell to -0.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Brazil IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM fell to -0.3% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 1.2% from April's 0.9% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 0.6%.
Latest Release
-0.300000
Actual
0.300000
Consensus
0.900000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM (Brazil) was reported at -0.3% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.1%, ranging from -0.4% to 0.9% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.13%, up from the prior three at -0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM - BR
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About IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM for June registered -0.300000%, missing the 0.300000% estimate and down from May's 0.900000%. This marks a contraction following the prior month's expansion. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation data and central bank policy amid this unexpected deflationary shift. Updated 6/16/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa, r=0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -0.5 | -1.09 | -1.13 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Medium |