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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM climbed to -0.5% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM climbed to -0.5% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.6% from June's -1.1% reading. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.6%.
Latest Release
-0.500000
Actual
0.100000
Consensus
-1.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM (Brazil) was reported at -0.5% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.03%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.9% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.03%, up from the prior three at -0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.39%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.84%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM - BR
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About IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM fell by -0.500000% in July, missing the 0.100000% estimate. This represents a smaller decline compared to June's -1.100000%, indicating a moderation in deflationary pressure. The persistent negative reading signals ongoing contraction in wholesale prices, influencing market expectations ahead of upcoming inflation data. Updated 8/17/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.5 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.3 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa, r=0.69) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |