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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IPCA mid-month CPI YoY climbed to 4.62% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI YoY climbed to 4.62% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.15% from August's 4.47% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
4.620000
Actual
4.730000
Consensus
4.470000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 4.72
Actual: 4.62
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IPCA mid-month CPI YoY (Brazil) was reported at 4.62% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.73% by 0.11%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.47%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.43%, ranging from 3.9% to 4.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.44%, down from the prior three at 4.65%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.25%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.3%). In October readings over the past 3 years, IPCA mid-month CPI YoY has averaged 4.68%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Oct 30) and Unemployment Rate (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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IPCA mid-month CPI YoY - BR
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About IPCA mid-month CPI YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
IPCA mid-month CPI YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for mid-month in Brazil. This indicator is used to track inflation and price stability in the country, providing valuable insights for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A higher IPCA mid-month CPI YoY indicates an increase in the overall cost of goods and services, while a lower reading suggests a decrease in prices. This indicator is closely monitored by the Brazilian government and financial institutions to make informed decisions related to monetary policy and economic planning.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 4.62 %, consensus 4.73 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 4.47 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 4.24 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |