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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IPCA mid-month CPI YoY fell to 4.24% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI YoY fell to 4.24% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.28% from June's 4.52% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
4.240000
Actual
4.340000
Consensus
4.520000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 4.3
Actual: 4.24
Error: +0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
IPCA mid-month CPI YoY (Brazil) was reported at 4.24% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.34% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.52%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.53%, ranging from 3.9% to 5.32% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.52%, up from the prior three at 4.21%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.38%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.41%). In August readings over the past 3 years, IPCA mid-month CPI YoY has averaged 4.51%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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IPCA mid-month CPI YoY - BR
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About IPCA mid-month CPI YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
IPCA mid-month CPI YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for mid-month in Brazil. This indicator is used to track inflation and price stability in the country, providing valuable insights for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A higher IPCA mid-month CPI YoY indicates an increase in the overall cost of goods and services, while a lower reading suggests a decrease in prices. This indicator is closely monitored by the Brazilian government and financial institutions to make informed decisions related to monetary policy and economic planning.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.24 %, consensus 4.34 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.52 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 4.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |