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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IPCA mid-month CPI YoY climbed to 4.64% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI YoY climbed to 4.64% in May 2026, up 0.27% from April's 4.37% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
4.640000
Actual
4.550000
Consensus
4.370000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 4.64
Actual: 4.64
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IPCA mid-month CPI YoY (Brazil) was reported at 4.64% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.55% by 0.09%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.37%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.71%, ranging from 3.9% to 5.32% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.21%, down from the prior three at 4.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.46%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.46%). In May readings over the past 3 years, IPCA mid-month CPI YoY has averaged 4.58%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.07%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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IPCA mid-month CPI YoY - BR
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About IPCA mid-month CPI YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
IPCA mid-month CPI YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for mid-month in Brazil. This indicator is used to track inflation and price stability in the country, providing valuable insights for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A higher IPCA mid-month CPI YoY indicates an increase in the overall cost of goods and services, while a lower reading suggests a decrease in prices. This indicator is closely monitored by the Brazilian government and financial institutions to make informed decisions related to monetary policy and economic planning.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.64 %, consensus 4.55 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.37 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.